Canadian all wheat stocks of July 31, 2015 were down sharply from a year earlier but still came in near the high end of trade expectations.
Thursday morning’s Statistics Canada stocks report pegged nationwide all wheat stocks as of July 31 (ending stocks for the 2014-15 crop year) at 7.1 million tonnes. That’s down a major 32% from a year earlier, when the massive 2013 crop pushed 2013-14 ending stocks to 10.35 million tonnes – a two-decade high.
However, the July 31, 2015 stocks number was still on the high end of pre-report trade guesses that ranged from 5.1 million to 7.1 million tonnes. In its July supply-demand update, Agriculture Canada projected 2014-15 all wheat ending stocks at 6.7 million tonnes.
Durum stocks as of July 31 were estimated 982,000 tonnes, versus 1.77 million last year and pre-report estimates of 800,000 to 1.2 million tonnes. Ag Canada was forecasting 1 million.
The decline in all wheat stocks compared to a year earlier is explained by a decrease in on-farm stocks, down 51.3% to 2.89 million tonnes. Commercial stocks dropped a more modest 6.5% to 4.21 million tonnes.
The sharp drop in all wheat on-farm stocks was mainly attributable to Saskatchewan, where supplies tumbled 50.7% from a year earlier to 1.7 million tonnes. Manitoba on-farm stocks dropped to 200,000 from 470,000 tonnes the previous year and Alberta on-farm supplies fell to 890,000 tonnes from 1.79 million.
Source: Syngentafarm