Annual Tour Predicts Big Boost in HRS Crop in Northern Plains

By Steve Mercer, USW Vice President of Communications

Fifty-three representatives of the entire U.S. wheat value chain, from farmers to domestic and overseas customers, gathered in Fargo, ND, on June 21 to visit more than 400 wheat fields in North Dakota and South Dakota over three days. The goal: estimate the yield potential of the 2014/15 hard red spring (HRS) and hard amber durum crops, the same as others have done on the Wheat Quality Council (WQC Hard Spring and Durum Tour for more than 25 years. U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) Vice President of Communications Steve Mercer and Assistant Director of the USW West Coast Office Shawn Campbell participated in this year’s tour.

“While it is helpful to get a snapshot of the crop potential before harvest, we generate a historical record of the crop over many years for comparison,” said Ben Handcock, WQC executive director. “Another great thing about these tours is the chance for people who are responsible for buying wheat to get their first experience in the field, walking and touching the crop.”

Dave Katzke is a quality control executive with General Mills who has participated in the spring wheat quality tour for more than 20 years. As a member of the WQC, he serves as the tour's record-keeper.

“The tour gives me an early look at the issues and opportunities with the next crop," Katzke said. "For example, in our review session, we heard there is a pretty big gap in planting dates because of the wet, cold spring that could affect yield and quality between the early and late crops, depending on conditions through harvest.”

Before heading out to scout wheat fields, North Dakota State University (NDSU) entomologists and plant pathologists provided additional background on this year’s crop conditions. Dr. Janet Knodel, entomologist, told the group that while insect pressure this year has been relatively light, there are pockets of concern about wheat midge larvae and stem maggot feeding on developing grain. Dr. Andrew Friskop, plant pathologist, showed the participants how to look for signs of fusarium head scab and leaf diseases. In addition, NDSU's spring wheat breeder Dr. Mohamed Mergoum and durum breeder Dr. Elias Elias described the challenge of balancing the farmer's need for higher yields with the downstream customer's need for quality, a shared goal that USW works towards with overseas customers and breeders through the Overseas Varietal Analysis program.

At NDSU's seed development facility, participants learned how to apply the following formula across all their field stops to determine an estimated average yield in bushels per acre.

Each day in the field the tour participants follow the same routes as previous tour participants so comparisons are consistent. The first day on the road, June 22, was long. Traveling west from Fargo through southern North Dakota and northern South Dakota in 14 vehicles, tour participants stopped at 156 spring wheat fields. Yields in South Dakota were excellent and scouts reported good stands in south-central North Dakota. Conditions in parts of southwestern North Dakota were mixed and the gap in planting dates was very evident with some wheat in the flag leaf stage and some only 3 or 4 weeks from maturity. No serious disease or insect pressure was seen.

At the end of the day, the tour reported an estimated weighted average yield of 48.3 bushels per acre (bu/a) or 3.25 metric tons per hectare (MT/h). Even if the average yield declines from this point, the tour result still represents the highest expected yield for the first day of the tour in five years. That compares with day one average estimates of 43.5 bu/a (2.93 MT/h) in 2013 and 42.6 bu/a (2.87 MT/h) in 2012.

Tour participant Alyssa Hicks with the USDA Spring Wheat Quality Laboratory in Fargo, ND, checked 11 spring wheat fields in central North Dakota between Bismarck and Devils Lake on the second day of her sixth spring wheat quality tour. She believes this tour gives her an edge as she analyzes dozens of wheat samples from the new crop.

"Now, when I see samples coming into the lab from various regions at a very busy time later this year, I will know about any environmental and management issues from those regions and I can determine how to manage those samples more effectively and efficiently," Hicks said. "I also like the chance to talk about the crop with the other people on the tour in a more relaxed situation. We spend a lot of time in our vehicles."

Hicks and other participants reported results that were fairly consistent across the north-central and northwestern regions of North Dakota. The gap in planting dates was less evident on the second day in the central region, but there were many fallow and late-planted HRS fields farther north and west. The final estimated average yield potential for HRS under current conditions was 48.4 bu/a (3.26 MT/h), consistent with the previous day’s estimate, compared to the 2013 Day Two estimate of 45.0 bu/a (3.03 MT/h) and the 2012 estimate of 45.5 bu/a (3.06 MT/h). The tour also checked 14 durum fields and estimated current yield potential at 36.6 bu/a (2.46 MT/h), compared to 41.6 bu/a (2.80 MT/h) on 2013 Day Two.

In discussion about the day's results, the group agreed that they had expected to see more HRW fields. Farmers and state wheat commission leaders joined the tour participants at dinner in Devils Lake, ND, and explained that significantly more HRW had been planted last fall but winterkill and other factors forced farmers to abandon all but about 200,000 acres (80,937 hectares) of HRW. Farmers chose either to replant those fields to HRS or abandon the fields completely for this season. In addition to the cold, late spring, challenges with HRW this year had a significant impact on cropping decisions.

The third and final day of the tour covered northeast North Dakota. Detailed description of the day’s scouting were not available at release time, but the final weighted average estimate of the HRS crop yield potential in North Dakota under current conditions is 48.6 bu/a (3.27 MT/h), an all-time record high if realized. For durum in North Dakota, current yield potential is 36.6 bu/a ( 2.46 MT/h), down from last year’s prediction of 41.7 bu/a (2.81 MT/h) Current yield potential for HRW in North Dakota is 44.0 bu/a (2.96 MT/h), down from 53.5 bu/a (3.60 MT/h) projected during last year’s tour.

Source : uswheat.org