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India’s Pulse Import to Surge with Falling Harves

Jan 29, 2015

By G Chandrashekhar
The Hindu Business Line


All is not well with India’s domesticpulse crop situation for 2014/15.Falling acreage and lower harvest are set to trigger additional imports to meet the widening supply shortfall. Evidence of a surge is already available.India’s rabi season pulse crop harvest risks a fall well below last year’s harvest of 13.3 million (M) tonnes (government estimate),and below this season’s production target of 12.5 M tonnes. On current estimates,the size of the upcoming harvest could be around 11.5 M tonnes. This will mean a reversal of the rising production trend of the last two years.

The anticipated harvest shortfall quickly follows a decline in kharif output (October) to 5.2 M tonnes from the season’s production target of 7 M tonnes and below the previous year’s harvest of 6 M tonnes.
In other words, total production in 2014/15 is expected to be below, or at best, 17 M tonnes. In the 2011/12 crop year when pulse production was 17.1 M tonnes,India’s imports stood at 3.6 M tonnes. With a rising population and lower food inflation,consumption demand is surging.

No wonder, import volumes are expanding rapidly. India’s import data are maintained on a fiscal year basis that is April to March. Arrivals in the first nine months of the current fiscal year are an estimated 2.9 M tonnes, higher than 2.3 M tonnes recorded for the corresponding period previous fiscal year. Given the rise in domestic prices and pace of contracting,projected imports for next three months is 1.1-1.2 M tonnes, taking the total annual import to 4.0 M tonnes for 2014/15. The value of such imports will be of the order of $2.5 billion. In 2013/14, pulse imports aggregated 3.7 M tonnes when production was 19.6 M tonnes.

This rabi season (Feb-April harvest) the area planted to various pulses (mainly gram, chana, or desi chickpea, lentil,pea, urad, and moong) is lower by 11%, equal to 3.9 M acres with total area planted this season at 32.9 M acres versus last year’s 36.8 M acres.

The acreage fall largely reflects the decline in area planted to gram or chana(20.2 M acres this season versus 24.2 M acres last rabi). Other pulse crops such as lentils (3.7 M acres), peas (1.9 M acres), urad (1.7 M acres), and moong (1.2 M acres) have managed to retain the acreage. The fall in gram or chana acreage is attributable to low farm-gate prices that prevailed for well over a year until about four months ago. Disappointed growers have switched to other crops.

International trading houses are geared to meet India’s surging demand. Given the price sensitive nature of the market,a significant portion of arrivals will be yellow pea which is seen as a substitute for gram or chana. It is not uncommon to find yellow pea flour blended with chana or gram flour.

India’s Pulse Production and Import Trends

Year

Production

Import

2011/12

17.1

3.6

2012/13

18.3

4.0

2013/14

19.6

3.7

2014/15*

Author’s forecast

(Private forecast)

17.0

4.0

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