Pulse Market Insight - Chickpea

A few weeks ago, we started seeing Indian chickpea prices drop hard, for both desi and kabuli types. More acres have been planted this rabi (winter) season than last year and the long-term average. Indian prices for both types reacted as expected. Keep in mind that kabuli chickpeas are the one pulse crop that can be exported from India.

As a result, this trend was not friendly for North American chickpea prices. Add in the larger estimate for the 2012 US chickpea crop and the market looks a lot heavier. The chart below shows that North American prices have ticked lower recently

The chart also shows other key markets aren’t reflecting this weakness. Chickpea prices in Turkey dipped following its 2012 harvest but have been rebounding since then. This is particularly the case for the larger calibre types and suggests that domestic supplies are starting to run low. It’s about six months until the next Turkish harvest, so this strength looks like it will last a while.

At this time of year, the other key market is Mexico, especially for large calibre kabulis. We still don’t have a solid estimate of seeded area but expect that it will be lower than the record acreage planted the previous year. The most pressing concern is a frost event last week in key producing regions. Depending on the extent and severity of the frost, the market outlook could change considerably. So far, the price environment in Mexico isn’t providing many clues about changes to the supply situation.

Part of our earlier concern about chickpea markets stemmed from anecdotal reports about the lack of active bids in the Canadian prairies. This suggested there was limited export business happening. Export data shows this wasn’t the case, with volumes (almost all kabulis) picking up in October and even more in November. This means Canadian 2012/13 ending stocks won’t look as heavy