Pulse Market Insight - USDA Acreage Implications

Last week, the USDA released its estimate of US 2013 Prospective Plantings. For most pulse markets, the report raised some interesting issues and questions. The US pea crop is considerably smaller than in Canada but still has room to affect the market. That’s especially the case for green peas, since this class typically makes up a larger percentage (recent average is 45%) of the US crop than in Canada. Even though the USDA doesn’t break down dry peas by class, the reported 31% increase in pea acres suggests most of the increase will be in greens. With an average yield, US green pea production could easily surpass 350,000 tonnes, a clear warning for that side of the pea market. And that’s especially true if Canadian green pea acres jump as much as seed supplies will allow. For yellow peas, the USDA report is mostly neutral.

In contrast to peas, the USDA planting report showed a 28% drop in expected lentil acres. The size of the decline is a bit of surprise but does raise some interesting questions. The US lentil crop is mostly made up of green lentils (especially mediums), so the drop in acres should especially help that part of the market. There is little if any impact on red lentil markets from this report.

It could get more interesting if Canadian green lentil acres show the same kind of decline as the US. If so, green lentil markets would get friendlier in 2013/14. The StatsCan seeding intentions report comes out on April 24, still enough time to make some last-minute adjustments in planting plans.

The USDA forecast that chickpea (almost all kabuli) acres would stay mostly flat compared to last year, but that’s still much higher than previous years. Overall, it’s not very friendly for prices in a market that’s already feeling a little heavy. Canadian planting intentions could also point toward a few more acres, but delayed planting might put a crimp in those plans yet.