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Pulse Market Report April 2014

Apr 17, 2014

By: Chuck Penner
While there’s never been a shortage of debate regarding Canada’s grain handling system, we’ve seen more sound and fury this winter than ever before. With the rhetoric ramped up (on both sides of the fence), it’s sometimes hard to know the real deal. To help cut through the debate, it’s worth looking at actual export numbers to get a handle on performance. In this article, we’ll look at how pulses have moved so far and what that means for the rest of 2013/14 and the first half of 2014/15.

Of course, there was widespread frustration that export movement wasn’t keeping up with orders, meaning large volumes were left in bins when farmers wanted to sell. But surprisingly, pulse export volumes so far have been above average. Pea exports started off 2013/14 with a bang - no surprise there. That’s fairly typical for the beginning of the marketing year as the early - harvested peas get a head start in the system before other crops are harvested and exported. The chart shows a huge volume of yellow peas in
September, which then declined as per usual. Then in February yellow peas started to recover a bit. Green pea exports volumes hit a high point in October and November as global buyers restocked their bare cupboards. Since that initial flurry, volumes have dropped off.

Earlier in the crop year, we had been concerned about Indian demand for yellow peas in the second half of 2013/14 since it looked like their rabi (winter) pulse harvest could be very large. Since then however, weather problems in late February have cut into the harvest estimates and pulse

prices there have jumped. At the same time, China continues to be a strong buyer of yellow peas throughout the year. As a result, we’re forecasting stronger yellow pea exports f
or the remainder of 2013/14. Also because India’s next pea and chickpea crops won’t be available until February 2015, it should mean strong demand for the first half of 2014/15. The only difference this year will be that the country elevator system won’t be empty heading into harvest and could limit the early surge in exports. When it comes to green peas,
demand tends to be fairly steady from year - to - year. India and China are good customers but don’t dominate green pea trade as much as they do yellows. It
looks like green peas will be getting a little harder to find in

Western Canada through the rest of 2013/14, which will likely mean reduced export. But lower exports because of tight supplies are a better problem than a slowdown due to weak demand. The slow second half should mean a solid start to 2014/15 as well. The key concern is whether Canada (and the U.S.) will overproduce for this relatively
static market. Lentil exports have been exceptionally strong so far in 2013/14, with green lentil volumes remaining quite steady while red lentils have accounted for the extra tonnage. Exports have seen ups and downs the last few months, particularly reds.

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Source: Saskatchewan Pulse Growers