Ron Plain: Cattle Market Outlook

Jul 03, 2015

Ron Plain and Scott Brown
University of Missouri

July 3, 2015
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The U.S. economy added 223,000 jobs in June and the number of people in the labor force declined by 432,000. This combination pulled the unemployment rate down to 5.3%. Overall the numbers indicate continuing slow growth.

USDA's weekly Crop Progress report says 9% of U.S. pastures were in poor or very poor condition on June 28. That is the same as the week before and 6 points lower than a year ago.

Fed cattle prices this week were higher on light volume. Through Wednesday, the 5-area average price for slaughter steers sold on a live weight basis was $151.28/cwt, up $1.38 from the first three days last week, but down $6.12 from the same days last year. The 5 area average dressed price this week for steers was $239.45/cwt, up 2 cents compare to last week, but down $10.00 compared to the same week last year.

This morning the choice boxed beef cutout value was $250.27/cwt, down $4.26 from the previous Friday. The select carcass cutout was $248.42/cwt this morning down $1.26 from last week.

Through Thursday, cattle slaughter totaled 451,000 head, up 3.2% from the week before, but down 3.6% from the same week last year.

The average steer dressed weight for the week ending on June 20 was 872 pounds, up 3 pounds from the week before, up 16 pounds compared to the same week last year and above the year-ago level for the 53rd consecutive week.

Feeder cattle prices at Oklahoma City were steady to $2 higher this week. Prices for medium and large frame #1 steers by weight group were: 400-450# $298-$300, 450-500# $299-$304, 500-550# $275-$288, 550-600# $236-$271, 600-650# $235-$257, 650-700# $230-$247, 700-750# $223-$246, 750-800# $217.50-$229.50, 800-900# $208-$222.50 and 900-1000#, $199-$207/cwt.

Fed cattle futures were higher this week. The August live cattle futures contract settled at $151.22/cwt today, up $2.70 for the week. October fed cattle settled at $154.12/cwt, up $3.12 from the previous week. December fed cattle gained $2.50 this week to settle at $154.72/cwt.

The August feeder cattle contract ended the week at $217.45/cwt, up 20 cents for the week. The September feeder cattle contract closed at $216.10/cwt.

Source: AGEBB