The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: Old Man Winter Takes Toll on HRW Crop

By Julia Debes
After promising crop conditions going into dormancy last fall, Mother Nature and Old Man Winter teamed up to blast the hard red winter (HRW) crop in the Central Plains with vicious winds, volatile temperature swings and far too little moisture.

This week, USDA reported that the decline in fall-to-spring wheat conditions this year matches the modern-day record set in 1995-96 (see below). USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service’s (NASS) reported these conditions as of April 13 in its weekly Crop Progress report — before a hard freeze struck the HRW growing region on April 14 and 15.

Nationally, NASS reported that winter wheat conditions, as of April 13, declined slightly from the week before and remain similar to last year at this time with 32 percent rated very poor to poor, 34 percent fair and 34 percent good to excellent.

Potential for freeze damage, however, is the story of the week. Agronomists explained that we will not know the extent of damage for a week to 10 days, but provided some initial thoughts.

In a special freeze injury update on April 15, Dr. Jim Shroyer, crop production specialist at Kansas State University, noted that the hard freeze in Kansas was not nearly as severe as a freeze around this same time last year, but still could cause damage. The good news? According to Shroyer, wheat that has not jointed will show cosmetic damage almost immediately, but the growing point below the soil is better protected. For Kansas, NASS reported that as of April 13, just 31 percent of the wheat crop is jointed, close to last year, but still behind the five-year average of 47 percent.

Wheat farmers in Oklahoma and Texas were not as lucky. Oklahoma’s HRW wheat crop reached 80 percent jointed as of April 13, compared to 52 percent last week, slightly ahead of last year at this time and slightly behind the five-year average. Winter wheat that has headed is even more susceptible to freeze damage, and NASS reported 16 percent of winter wheat headed in Texas.

Rain Makes Grain, But Moisture Is in Short Supply. Marsha Boswell, director of communications at Kansas Wheat, stated that while temperatures did dip this week, the primary concern remains the need for moisture.

“The real issue in Kansas is the drought,” she said. “Almost everyone I’ve talked to is more worried about the lack of moisture than the freeze.”

In Kansas, NASS rated topsoil moisture conditions at 69 percent very short to short and 31 percent adequate. These conditions rank worse than last year, when NASS rated 41 percent of topsoil very short to short. Subsoil moisture conditions were rated similar to last year at 70 percent very short to short and 30 percent adequate.

The same is true in Oklahoma. NASS reported that the entire state had only received 55 percent of normal precipitation since March 1. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, more than 13 percent of the state is in exceptional drought as of April 10, compared to less than 3 percent just three months ago.

According to NASS, “The entire state, assuredly the western portion, is in dire need of precipitation to see any progress in winter crops.”

Don Schieber, who grows HRW wheat near Ponca City, OK, agreed. He noted the wheat in his area, north central Oklahoma, is “hanging on but hurting.” He added that across the state, “the farther west you go, the worse it gets.”

In Texas, NASS reported that wheat is starting to turn blue, a sign of heat and drought stress. NASS rated topsoil moisture conditions as 75 percent very short to short, 23 percent adequate and 2 percent surplus.

Steelee Fischbacher, director of policy and marketing with Texas Wheat, wrote that farmers have already abandoned some dryland fields in the Panhandle.

Windy Weather Not Helping. High winds are exacerbating the potential for damage, siphoning off moisture as they blow across the Plains.

Larry Flohr, who farms in the Nebraska Panhandle at Chappell, said the wheat broke dormancy in good condition, but late-planted wheat suffered from vicious winds in January and is way behind earlier planted wheat.

NASS reported that high winds in combination with snow led to blizzard conditions last week in western and southern Nebraska. NASS also reported high winds in eastern Colorado and in the northern Texas High Plains.

All is Not Lost. Despite the forces of Nature working against it, there is still potential for an average HRW crop in many areas — if rain comes in the next few weeks.
For example, Shroyer said that secondary tillers might still emerge, even if the main tillers are damaged or dead, after a freeze. This wheat will look ragged but, Shroyer noted, enough tillers might survive to produce good yields if conditions improve.

Dr. Jeff Edwards, small grains extension specialist at Oklahoma State University, was less optimistic. He told the Oklahoma Farm Report on April 15 that he was doubtful that newly emerging tillers would have much yield potential in southern Oklahoma. If, and Dr. Edwards calls it a “big if,” conditions improve, late emerging tillers in northern Oklahoma may still have a chance at producing grain.

Despite persistently difficult conditions, there are pockets of good-looking HRW in the Central Plains.

Jay Armstrong farms in eastern Kansas near Muscotah, where less wheat is planted now compared to corn and soybeans. He reported that his jointed wheat received two inches of rain before the cold, which protected the plants.

“It may be too early, but I don’t think we got hurt,” he said. “Wheat looks fabulous — if you can find much planted.”

Farther west, Glenda Mostek, communications and marketing director with Colorado Wheat, reported that the 2014 crop is also in better shape overall than in 2013, while adding the disclaimer that pockets of the state are suffering and farmers there still need at least average moisture ahead to finish the crop

NASS rated the Colorado crop as 33 percent very poor to poor, 31 percent fair and 36 percent good to excellent. This is substantially better than last year at this time when NASS rated the crop 44 percent very poor to poor, 42 percent fair and just 14 percent good.

NASS also reported improved subsoil moisture conditions in Colorado from last year at this time at 56 percent very short to short (compared to 77 percent last year), 43 percent adequate and 1 percent surplus. Topsoil conditions are similar to last year at this time.

The award for most improved wheat crop conditions to date, however, goes to Nebraska where the early-planted wheat has good potential, according to farmer Larry Flohr. NASS rated 59 percent of the state’s wheat crop as good to excellent, 29 percent fair and 12 percent very poor to poor. That is a marked improvement from last year at this time, when just 12 percent of the crop was rated as good, 38 percent fair and 50 very poor to poor.

Source: U.S. Wheat Associates