| I saw this report on the sluggish harvest and wondered how bullish everyone was - I still have some corn to sell (30%) and wanted to see if anyone else was going to wait and see if the rally keeps going?
USDA: Slow Harvest - Still Behind.
At a time when the corn harvest is usually wrapping up,
barely more than half has been taken from the fields, the U.S. Department of
Agriculture said in its weekly crop progress report.
Meanwhile, the soybean harvest is getting closer to completion and winter
wheat development is falling behind.
The report's estimates were not a big departure from trade expectations, but
underscored the slow pace of this year's crop due to lousy weather.
Corn
The corn harvest picked up pace in the past week, as expected, amid several
days of dry conditions in the U.S. corn belt. The completion of the soybean
harvest in many areas allowed farmers to turn their attention to their corn,
analysts said.
The corn crop was 54% harvested as of Sunday, up from 37% the prior week but
well below 77% last year and the five-year average of 89%. Analysts were
expecting anywhere from 50% to 60% of the harvest to be complete.
But the crop in some northern corn belt states remained very far behind
schedule. Harvest was only 35% complete in Michigan, 43% in Minnesota, 27% in
South Dakota, 38% in Wisconsin and 8% in North Dakota.
"That northern region, if the snows set in, that corn could be in there until
spring," said Arlan Suderman, analyst for Farm Futures. "That's definitely a
concern from a production standpoint, a quality standpoint, and for next year,
being able to turn those acres around."
In Illinois, a key corn producer, only 52% of the crop was harvested, up from
31% the prior week but down from the average of 95%. Suderman said he has
spoken to producers in Illinois who expect to be harvesting corn in January.
Wet weather across much of the corn belt this week could limit the progress,
analysts said.
Benson Quinn Commodities analyst Jon Michalscheck also notes in a commentary
that the government has stopped reporting on the portion of the crop that
hasn't even reached maturity, "which still appears to be fairly widespread" in
northern Minnesota and the Dakotas.
The portion of the U.S. crop rated good to excellent was 67%, down from 68%
the prior week.
Soybeans
The soybean harvest is becoming less of an issue, although producers haven't
reached the finish line yet.
The USDA said the soybean harvest was 89% complete as of Sunday, up from 75%
the prior week but below the five-year average of 96%. Traders had pegged the
progress at 90%.
"Most major soybean producing states remain behind normal pace but
significant advances were made with last week's dry weather," Benson Quinn
Commodities analyst Kim Rugel said in a market commentary.
The market is starting to turn its attention to South America's weather and
its planting season. Suderman said the soybeans lingering in U.S. fields could
become a problem, however, if they are still there a couple weeks from now.
Unlike corn, soybeans won't withstand the winter.
"Because demand is so strong, it is essential we get those bushels," Suderman
said.
Wheat
Winter wheat planting is almost done, with 90% planted as of Sunday, up from
86% the prior week and compared to the five-year average of 95%.
"Real concerns about the wheat, particularly some of the soft red winter
states where not only have we not been able to get planted, but worse than that
the (slow) emergence levels," Suderman said.
The USDA said that 77% of the winter wheat crop had emerged, up from 71% the
prior week but below the five-year average of 87%.
Illinois' crop was only 45% emerged, compared to the average of 92%, Indiana
was 55% emerged compared to the 90% average, and Missouri was only 33% emerged
versus the 72% average.
The slow emergence means that the crop will need a favorable winter. Slow
emergence limits the ability of the crop to store water and weather adverse
conditions over the winter, he said.
Still, the slower emergence mainly just offers background support, he said,
as stocks are ample and the Black Sea region poses competition for U.S. wheat.
Sixty-four percent of the U.S. crop was rated good-to-excellent, up one
percentage point from the prior week.
| | Author : jake | | Date Posted : 11/16/2009 8:38:41 PM | |
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