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|Here are some projections from some of the top agri commodity research analysts.|
These large acreages could produce a significant change in grain inventories.
It is going to be a volatile year and challenging for producers to manage effectively.
Rabobank: 97.6 m acres of corn
Goldman say 97.5 m acres.
Morgan Stanley 96.9m acres
Please share your thoughts on these acreages and where you think next fall's corn prices may be.
Let me know if you have any questions or want to know what our Marketing Plan Recommendations are.
|Author : Moe Agostino |
|Date Posted : 12/10/2012 8:40:17 PM|
|Re:Analysts' Big 2013 Corn Acreage Projections.|| Report this Message | Reply to this Message |
|Personally, I do not think that the bears are going to be able to stage a price decline for a very extended period of time. I base this thought on the fact that a majority of the acres that are taken from other crops to increase planted acres in 2013 are coming from west of the Mississippi River. The last I checked (yesterday) there was severe to extreme drought over much of Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Central/Northern Texas, Central/Southern Montana, Central/Southern Wyoming, Western Iowa, and Southern South Dakota. Now, a goodly portion of these acres are supposedly CRP acres that are being returned to crop production. If you look up a map of CRP acres by state, you will find that a vast majority of CRP land is in the above mentioned states. Now I realize that there will be some ground taken from less competitive crops but I believe that it is far to early to determine how many. There is still too much uncertainty about the South American crop season for any accurate guessing. There will also be some who will raise the possibility of the drought in the Western Corn Belt lifting significantly over the next 3-6 months. I have yet to see a Meteorologist willing to make that prediction. The overwhelming majority points to well below average rainfall for an indefinite period of time. This would uphold the dry trend started in Texas four years ago that has steadily progressed North ever since. Back to the CRP ground that will help supply a substantial acre increase. If just half the estimated four million acre increase in harvested acres is found West of the Mississippi River, assuming the dryness continues, what would the impact be on the overall yield and ending stocks? I think that it could be substantial. Now, we could also argue the point from a different angle. If there is continued dryness that leads to a substantial decrease in wheat yield and harvested acres, where will livestock producers go next for feed? Could there be a return to corn in the ration? I don't know much about the livestock industry as I am primarily a row crop and hay producer so I really don't have a clue what the answer to that question might be. If someone has input I would be glad to hear. As for the rest of this rant, if anything makes sense, feel free to tell me boldly and bluntly what you think!!|
P.S. I do realize that soil conditions at planting can have little effect on overall yield. So far, I do not think that will be the case this year. I am basing this opinion on what I have heard from meteorologist via QT Weather and Planalytics...
|Date Posted : 1/27/2013 3:38:36 PM|
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