Mexico Will Keep Buying U.S. Pork Despite Tariff

The tariff is in retaliation for the United States limiting access of Mexican trucks to U.S. roads.

In three of the past five years, at least 20 percent of U.S. pork exports have gone to Mexico. Last year, that was only about 4 percent of total U.S. pork production, but enough that Mexico will be hard-pressed to replace it from other sources at competitive shipping rates.

As a result, analysts expect a quick resolution of the trade dispute, with the tariff removed, or else they say Mexico will keep buying U.S. pork despite the tariff.

"It is something the trade is confident will be worked out sooner rather than later," said Don Roose, analyst with U.S. Commodities.

The dispute comes at time when U.S. pork prices are near the record high of $94.41 per hundredweight set in 2008. Analyst expect prices to surpass that record soon because of this year's smaller supplies and strong exports.

USDA forecasts total U.S. pork exports will be up 9 percent this year, while production will be down about 3.3 percent.