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Stu Ellis: August Crop Report: The Numbers Are Higher

Aug 12, 2010

USDA crop statisticians have forecast the 2010 corn and soybean crops at record high production of 13.365 billion bushels for corn and 3.433 billion bushels for soybeans. Both are 2% higher than the 2009 crops with increased production coming in most major growing regions. And here are the details…

Cornbelt production for corn is projected at:
Illinois ......: 12,4 mil. acres 180.0 bu 2.232 bil bu.
Indiana .......: 5.87 mil acres 176.0 bu 1.033 bil bu.
Iowa ..........: 13.0 mil acres 179.0 bu 2.327 bil bu.
Kansas ........: 4.4 mil acres 143.0 bu 629.200 mil bu
Michigan ......: 2.2mil. acres 156.0 bu. 343.2 mil bu.
Minnesota .....: 7.000 mil acres 178.0 bu. 1.246 bil bu.
Missouri ......: 3.2 mil acres 150.0 bu. 480 mil bu.
Nebraska ......: 8.550 mil acres 180.0 bu 1.539. bil bu.
North Dakota ..: 1.820 mil acres 140.0 bu 254.8 mil bu.
Ohio ..........: 3.380 mil acres 176.0 bu 594.88 mil bu.
South Dakota ..: 4.350 mil acres 148.0 bu 643.8 mil bu.
Wisconsin .....: 2.950 mil acres 159.0 bu 469.05 mil bu.

Cornbelt production for beans is projected at:
Illinois ......: 925 mil acres 49.0 bu 453.250 mil bu.
Indiana .......: 5.290 mil acres 49.0 bu. 259.210 mil bu
Iowa ..........: 10.150 mil acres 51.0 bu 517.650 mil bu.
Kansas ........: 4.050 mil acres 38.0 bu 153.900 mil bu.
Michigan ......: 2.090 mil acres 43.0 bu 89.870 mil bu.
Minnesota .....: 7.410 mil acres 44.0 bu 326.040 mil bu.
Missouri ......: 5.450 mil acres 42.0 bu 228.900 mil bu.
Nebraska ......: 5.350 mil acres 53.0 bu 283.550 mil bu.
North Dakota ..: 3.760 mil acres 35.0 bu 131,600 mil bu.
Ohio ..........: 4.680 mil acres 46.0 bu 215,280 mil bu.
South Dakota ..: 4.300 mil acres 40.0 bu 172,000 mil bu.
Wisconsin .....: 1.660 mil acres 44.0 bu 73,040 mil bu.

Thursday’s corn Supply Demand report began with the updated production estimate of 13.365 billion, retained feed use at 5.350 billion, raised industrial use from 6.06 to 6.09 billion bushels, raised exports from 1.950 to 2.050 billion, and lower ending stocks from 1.373 to 1.312 billion bushels. The season-average farm price is raised 5 cents on each end of the range to $3.50 to $4.10 per bushel.

Thursday’s soybean Supply Demand report began with updated soybean production of 3.433 billion bushels, raised the crush from 1.645 to 1.650 billion, raised exports from 1.370 to 1.435 billion, and retained ending stocks at 360 million bushels. Soybean and product prices all increased this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2010/11 is projected at $8.50 to $10.00, up 40 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $250 to $290 per short ton, up $10.00 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 36.5 to 40.5 cents per pound, up 2.5 cents on both ends of the range.


USDA also lowered wheat ending stocks from 1.093 billion bushels to 952 million bushels because of higher export potential as a result of the uncertainties of the Russian crop. The 2010 wheat crop production estimate was raised by 49 million bushels. The 2010/11 season-average farm price is projected at $4.70 to $5.50 per bushel, up 50 cents on both ends of the
range. Globally wheat supplies were reduced sharply by more than 15 million tons and global ending stocks were projected to drop by more than 12 million tons, but USDA says global ending stocks will be 50 million tons higher than in 2007/2008 when prices of wheat soared.

Summary:
USDA’s August Crop report forecast 2% increases in production compared to last year, which puts the 2010 corn and soybean crops at record high levels. However, because of increased demand, season average prices were increased slightly for both. Wheat price estimates were also raised, because of the increased global demand.