USDA shelled a few bushels of corn from its last yield estimate, and reported a new production estimate for March that included a few of those unharvested acres emerging from the winter snow. Cold winds are still whistling through Dakota cornfields and neither combines nor statisticians have been able to determine what is there yet. But we have some new numbers for the 2009 corn and soybean crop.
Tweaking. That is what USDA was doing March 10 when it released the latest supply and demand estimates for the 2009/2010 marketing year. Statisticians had promised to have new numbers from unharvested crops, but those were relegated to modifications in the December Stocks report, since an unharvested crop is considered an on-farm commodity. In the Supply Demand Report, USDA lowered total corn production by 20 million bushels based on new yield estimates for IL and MN, and a new estimate of the harvested acreage in MI. The total production was lowered to 13.131 billion bushels from the earlier estimate of 13.151 billion. While there were no changes made in the corn used for ethanol (4.3 bil.) or feed (5.55 bil.) the amount of corn to be exported dropped by 100 million bushels to 1.9 bil. That left ending stocks at 1.799 billion bushels. As a result of the updated estimates, USDA shucked 20¢ from the top of the estimated price range, and reset it to $3.45 to $3.75 per bushel.
Globally, corn production was raised by nearly 6 million additional tons with the help of more production in Argentina and South Africa. USDA also raised total acreage and yield for both countries with the help of sufficient moisture and overall good weather during pollination and grain fill stages. Subsequently, export estimates were raised by 90 million bushels for Argentina, which will offset a reduction of 100 million bushels fewer exports for the US. Global corn stocks were raised 6.1 million tons with most of the increases in the US and Argentina.
At the same time USDA was raising the corn carryout, it reduced the soybean carryout, by some 20 million bushels to 190 million for the 2009//2010 marketing year. USDA trimmed its estimate for 2009 production by 2 million bushels to 3.359 million. The 20 million fewer bushels in ending stocks are going to be exported instead, raising total US soybean exports to a record of 1.420 billion bushels. The crush was also raised by 10 million bushels to 1.730 billion, to compensate for a lower extraction rate for meal. USDA economists narrowed the price range estimates to $8.95 to $9.95 from the last estimate of $8.70 to $10.20 per bushel.
Globally, oilseed production was raised 1.6 million tons from the last estimate and is now projected at 435.3 million tons, and specifically soybean production was raised nearly 1 million tons to 255.9 million. Brazilian soybean production is estimated at 67 million tons, up by 1 million from the last month’s estimate. Global ending stocks are projected at 71.8 million, up 0.9 million from February, most of that represented by Argentine and Brazilian soybeans.
The ending stocks for US wheat reached the dubious milestone of 1 billion bushels. USDA says there will be less food use because of the high flour extraction rate for the second successive. Since 2009 wheat yields more flour, less wheat is needed for milling. That is occurring at the same time consumers are buying less flour per capita and wheat exports are remaining unchanged. USDA economists added 5¢ to each end of the marketing range, which has been reset to $4.80 to $5.00 per bushel.
Globally, wheat supplies are 2.1 million tons higher because of better production in Argentina and Russia. World stocks are now nearly 197 million tons, which is a 60% increase from the recent low in the 2007/2008 marketing year.
Summary:
While some 2009 crops remain mired in snowdrifts and mud, USDA chips away at the unknown volume of production. The March supply and demand estimates lowered corn production and raised soybean production, and subsequently raised the corn carryout because of lower exports and lowered the soybean carryout because of higher exports. The estimated market prices were lowered slightly for corn and narrowed for soybeans.