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Look To Replacement Heifer Numbers For The Best Indication Of Future Expansion In US Beef Herd

Feb 14, 2017

By Dr. Derrell Peel,

Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist

Dr. Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, offers his economic analysis of the beef cattle industry. This analysis is a part of the weekly series known as the "Cow Calf Corner" published electronically by Dr. Peel and Dr. Glenn Selk. Today, Dr. Peel breaks down US replacement beef heifers in order to find the best indications of future beef herd expansion.



"The U.S. beef cow herd was 31.2 million head on January 1, 2017. The beef cow herd has expanded a total of 7.3 percent since the recent low on January 1, 2014. The inventory of beef replacement heifers relative to the beef cow inventory is the best indication of future beef herd expansion. The January 1, 2017 ratio of replacement heifers to the cow herd was 20.6 percent, down slightly from one year ago. The 2016 ratio of 21.0 percent was the highest in 48 years. The heifer ratio has been sharply highly since herd expansion began in 2014 with the last three years having the three highest levels since 1969. The four-year average since 2014 is 20.4 percent. The average for the 25 years prior to 2014 was 17.3 percent. The current ratio of beef replacement heifers to the cow herd suggests that herd expansion will continue relatively aggressively in 2017. There are differences across regions, however.

"The long term average shows that beef replacement heifer ratios are generally higher in the northern part of the U.S. with the largest average ratios in the Northwest, Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast regions. This may be due to the colder climate, different cattle types, and higher proportions of purebred operations. These regions currently account for 29.4 percent of beef cows. The lowest average ratio is found the South (AL, GA, FL) although the lowest ratio in 2017 is in the Appalachian region (KY, TN, WV).

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