The latest crop production forecast from Statistics Canada is projecting 33.6 million tonnes of grains, oilseeds and pulse crops to be harvested in Saskatchewan this year, which — knock on wood — would be the second-largest crop in the province’s history.
Two weeks ago, Agriculture Minister Lyle Stewart advised the federal government and the major railways that an above-average crop was expected this year, so as to avoid the grain backlog caused in part by the record crop of 39.1 million tonnes (upgraded from 38.4 million tonnes) in the 2013-14 crop year. By comparison, the 10-year average is 28.3 million tonnes.
The projected near-record crop, which is based on a survey of 13,100 Canadian producers conducted in July and August, is the result of a larger-than-normal wheat crop, a record lentils crop and slightly larger canola harvest than last year in Saskatchewan, which is the leading producer of all three agricultural commodities in Canada.
Total wheat production in Canada is expected to reach 30.5 million tonnes in 2016, up 10.5 per cent from last year. This would mark the second time in 25 years that wheat production will exceed 30 million tonnes, the other being the bumper crop of 2013, the federal agency said.
The expected increase in total wheat production results from a projected higher average yield of 49 bushels per acre in 2016, up 14 per cent from 43 bushels per acre in 2015. The projected production increase was despite a 3.3 per cent decline in harvested area to 23 million acres, the lowest level in five years, Statistics Canada said.
Farmers in Saskatchewan anticipate wheat production to rise 5.1 per cent to 13.7 million tonnes, despite harvested area declining nearly a million acres to 11.9 million acres in 2016. The gain in total wheat production is being driven by a five-bushel-per-acre increase in average yield to 42.2 bushels per acre in 2016.
Projected wheat production, however, is lower than 2014, 2013 and 1999, while the record is 18.3 million tonnes in 2013.
Canadian farmers anticipate producing 17 million tonnes of canola in 2016, down 1.2 per cent from 2015. While the national average yield is projected to remain at 38 bushels per acre, lower expected harvested areas in Alberta and Manitoba are contributing to the decline in national production.
By contrast, canola production in Saskatchewan is expected to edge up 0.8 per cent from 2015 to 8.9 million tonnes in 2016, largely due to a 1.2 per cent increase in harvested area, with average yield similar to the 36 bushels per acre in 2015.
Source : Leaderpost