Slaughter Data Suggests Herd Expansion In The US Moderating Ahead Of 2017

By Dr. Derrell Peel
Extension Livestock Market Economist

Although beef cattle inventory numbers will not be available until January, it looks like 2016 will be a year of only moderate herd expansion. Farm Director Ron Hays consults with Extension Livestock Market Economist Dr. Derrell Peel today about where he sees the US cattle herd going as we move into the new year.

“We’re not growing as aggressively,” Peel said, pointing to indicators in slaughter data. “I think we’ve slowed down the rate of growth here on an annual basis in 2016. It’s just getting back to a more normal level this year compared to the very low level we had last year.”

Despite the braking expansion, Dr. Peel says he is still anticipating some growth, probably in the one to two percent range as opposed to last year’s 3.5 percent year-over-year increase in the beef cow herd. Overall though, he believes things will begin plateauing as we approach the new year.

“I think we may be largely done with expansion going into 2017,” Peel said. “We might still see a little bit, perhaps a half a percent. My expectation is it will be around 31 million beef cows coming into 2017.”

If more expansion is to take place, Dr. Peel says it will fall to demand as the limiting factor. He explains that if current trends stay the course and we continue to see exports grow and imports moderate, then demand might be sufficient to say that we need a bit more growth than we would have now, at this point.