USDA Expects Improved Yields Will Offset Decline in U.S. Planted Wheat Area
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USWheat Associates, Market Analyst
U.S. farmers responded to market signals and planted the fewest acres to wheat since the early 1970s according to USDA’s June 30 Acreage Report. However, the 2016/17 yield potential is high with nearly every region in the United States experiencing favorable weather conditions. USDA projects total average yields at 48.6 bu/ac or 3.3 metric tons per hectare up from 43.6 bu/ac last year and 8 percent above the 5-year average.
As of June 30, USDA estimated total area planted to wheat would reach 50.8 million acres, which is 9 percent lower than the 5-year average. USDA expects 2016/17 harvested area to drop 6 percent from both last year and the 5-year average to 44.1 million acres.
USDA estimates farmers planted 36.5 million acres of winter wheat for the 2016/17 harvest, up slightly from the March estimate. Rain last fall that delayed soybean harvest prevented some wheat seeding last fall, but low farm gate prices also contributed to the winter wheat planted area decline.
The winter wheat crop went into winter dormancy in good or above average condition but limited snow cover left the crop vulnerable to cold temperatures. However, a mild winter and early spring allowed winter wheat to emerge from dormancy in better than normal condition and beneficial spring rains further improved yield potential. As of June 27, USDA rated 62 percent of winter wheat in good or excellent condition, up from 41 percent last year at this time. USDA rated just 9 percent of the winter crop as poor or very poor, down from 23 percent in 2015.
USDA assessed hard red winter (HRW) planted area at 26.5 million acres, down 9 percent from 2015, and unchanged from the March estimate. While, a record-warm December and above average rainfall boosted yield potential significantly, heavy May rains caused flooding in parts of Texas and Oklahoma. Harvested area in top HRW-producers Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas is projected to fall 12 percent year over year. As of June 27, harvest was 58 percent complete in Kansas, ahead of 50 percent complete at this time in the 2015 harvest. Texas and Oklahoma harvest is nearly complete, and custom harvesters began test cutting along the Kansas-Nebraska border this week.
In contrast to recent years, soft red winter (SRW) harvest in the U.S. Southern Plains is progressing rapidly with good harvest conditions. As of June 27, harvest in Illinois was 76 percent complete compared to 45 percent complete last year with wheat in the largest SRW-growing state rated at 70 percent good to excellent. That is way up from 37 percent good to excellent on the same date in 2015. USDA estimates total 2016/17 SRW area at 6.58 million acres, 7 percent lower than 2015/16 and 20 percent below the 5-year average.
White wheat planted area increased slightly year over year according to USDA. White wheat planted area is forecast at 4.15 million acres. Idaho, Oregon and Washington, which produce most of the exportable U.S. white wheat were in the third year of drought during fall planting. However, December brought much needed precipitation to the region, and timely rains have continued to boost yield potential across the Pacific Northwest. With the adequate soil moisture, white wheat protein is expected to return to a more normal, lower range in 2016/17.
Hard red spring (HRS) planting finished well ahead of normal this year in most areas due to the early spring. USDA estimates farmers planted 11.4 million acres to HRS, up slightly from USDA’s March estimate but 9 percent below 2015/16 levels. As of June 27, 72 percent of the spring crop was rated good or excellent and just 5 percent was poor or very poor. In North Dakota, the largest HRS producing state, 78 percent of the crop is in good or excellent condition. According to USDA’s weekly crop progress report, 56 percent of spring wheat was headed as of June 27, compared to the 5-year average of 27 percent, indicating that the HRS crop is developing faster than normal.
Durum acreage increased again this year as farmers responded to higher prices. Northern durum is grown primarily in two regions of North Dakota and Montana. Desert Durum ® harvest is underway in Arizona and California. As of June 27, wheat harvest in Arizona was 96 percent complete compared to the 5-year average of 88 percent complete on the same date. California harvest is also ahead of schedule with USDA reporting 88 percent completion compared to 71 percent complete this time last year. USDA estimates 2.14 million acres were planted to durum, up 11 percent from 2015/16 but still 5 percent below the 5-year average of 2.26 million acres.
The industry will next turn toward USDA for its first by-class production estimates on July 12.