US grain exporters face a "crisis of competitiveness" which is seeing foreign rivals raise market share, helped in corn by doubts over the quality of American supplies.
The US Grains Council, whose role is to promote the country's grain exports, warned of "rapidly changing market realities" which were eroding US pre-eminence in agricultural commodity shipments.
The group focused on corn, in which the US is, for the first time in 2011-12, to account for less than 50% of world shipments, thanks to the emergence of Ukraine as a major exporter.
America's exports will ease to 43.2m tonnes, or 46% of the world total, down from 52% last season, on US Department of Agriculture exports.
However, the US is also to be overtaken by Brazil as a soybean exporter, and in wheat is seeing its lead in shipments eroded by Australia and Russia.
'Crisis of competitiveness'
"US producers face a crisis of competitiveness," the council said, noting an "intense battle" for share in export markets.
"Aggressive competitors in Argentina, Brazil and the Black Sea region… are ramping up production in response to high global prices for corn and other feed grains."
US producers "can hardly fault others for competing effectively for market share because, in large part, we taught them how to do it", the group said.
"But rising competition means US producers must look aggressively to emerging markets in which the US can earn a competitive edge."
Foreign threats
The comments follow forecasts last week from the USDA that the US was over the next decade to continue to lose market share in exports of major crops including corn, soybeans and wheat and, to a lesser extent, cotton and sorghum.
In wheat, US shipments will represent 16% of the world total in 2021, down from an average of 23% over the past five years, the last decade, mainly due to increased shipments from the Black Sea.
The USGC highlighted that in corn, "the US cannot take market dominance for granted", noting "increasing self-sufficiency" in the rest of the world.
"Non-US demand continues to rise rapidly, prices remain high, and non-US producers are responding."
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