Broiler meat production in third-quarter 2015 was 10.37 billion pounds, up 5 percent from the same period in 2014. The increase was the result of a 3-percent gain in the number of broilers slaughtered to 2.25 billion birds. In addition, the average live weight at slaughter rose to 6.11 pounds, 2 percent higher than in thirdquarter 2014. The increases in production in September were relatively close to the quarterly changes, with production 5 percent higher than a year earlier at 3.48 billion pounds. In September, the number of birds slaughtered was 2 percent higher and the average live weight at slaughter rose to 6.17 pounds, 3 percent above the previous year. Increasing average weights have been the most consistent factor in the growth of broiler production. Average weight at slaughter has been higher on a year-over-year basis for the last 35 months (since July 2012).
Fourth-quarter 2015 broiler meat production is forecast at 10.1 billion pounds, 3 percent higher than a year earlier. The increase in production is forecast to be driven mostly by a continued increase in average live weight. Preliminary slaughter numbers for broilers over the last several weeks show a slight year-over-year increase and higher average live weights; however, placement data has been mostly negative since mid-September, pointing toward a lower number of chicks being placed for growout.
Broiler meat production in 2016 is forecast to total 41 billion pounds, an increase of 2 percent from 2015. This forecast is an increase of 50 million pounds from the previous forecast, with the increase coming in higher production in the first quarter. In 2015, the increase in broiler meat production is expected to come mainly from higher average weights at slaughter. The number of birds being slaughtered is expected to decline compared to the previous year as integrators move to lower production somewhat pressured by high stock levels going into 2016 and low prices in 2015 for almost all broiler products.
The most recent weekly broiler hatchery report shows a slight downturn in the number of chicks being placed for growout compared with the previous year. Over the last 5 weeks (Oct. 10 through Nov. 7), the number of eggs placed in incubators for hatching averaged 195 million, 1 percent lower than in the same period in 2014. Over this same period, the number of chicks placed for growout has averaged 159 million, 2 percent lower than in the same period the previous year.
Third-Quarter Ending Stocks Rise to 762 Million Pounds
With higher broiler meat production in third-quarter 2015 compared to the previous year and with a large decline in third-quarter broiler exports, cold storage holdings rose to 762 million pounds at the end of the third quarter, up over 70 million pounds from the previous quarter and almost 170 million (29 percent) higher than the previous year. Cold storage holdings for all broiler product categories were significantly higher than the previous year, ranging from 15 percent for drumsticks to 67 percent for thighs. Increases in cold storage holdings for leg quarters were a prime factor in the year-over-year growth in cold storage holdings, totaling 44 million pounds from the previous year and making up 26 percent of the total increase in holdings, excluding paws and feet.
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Source: USDA