Monday's Closing Grain + LIvestock Futures Prices
Dec. corn closed at $3.43, up 4 and 1/2 cents
Nov. soybeans closed at $9.89 and 1/2, up 4 and 1/4 cents
Oct. soybean meal closed at $338.80, up 30 cents
Oct. soybean oil closed at 33.27, up 72 points
Dec. wheat closed at $5.00 and 3/4, down 1 and 3/4 cents
Oct. live cattle closed at $156.35, up 7 cents
Oct. lean hogs closed at $106.07, up 37 cents
Oct. crude oil closed at $92.92, up 65 cents
Dec. cotton closed at 65.84, down 216 points
Oct. Class III milk closed at $23.87, up 52 cents
Oct. gold closed at $1,234.10, up $3.70
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17,031.14, up 43.63 points
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Ag Market News and Commodity Comments
Soybeans were higher on technical buying. Frost over the weekend wasn’t as bad or as widespread as expected and the trade’s still expecting a record crop. USDA reports 24% of soybeans are dropping leaves, compared to the five year average of 32%, while 72% of the crop is rated good to excellent, unchanged on the week. The trade’s also watching early planting conditions in South America. If anything’s going to help with the tight near term supply, it’ll be the strong demand. China bought another 118,000 tons of U.S. beans for 2014/15 delivery. Soybean meal was mostly weak and bean oil was higher. New FSA acreage numbers are out Tuesday.
Corn was higher on technical buying. Corn’s also watching the weather, with a warmer pattern expected across the region over the next ten days or so. According to USDA, 82% of corn is denting, compared to 85% on average, 27% has reached maturity, compared to 39% on average, and 4% is harvested, compared to 9% on average. 74% of corn is rated good to excellent, unchanged from a week ago. Ethanol futures were higher. Mexico picked up 120,000 tons of U.S. corn for 2015/16 delivery.
The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. The big bearish factor for wheat continues to be the large available world supply. For spring wheat, 74% is harvested, compared to 86% on average, and for winter wheat, 12% is planted, compared to 11% on average. There was some freeze damage over the weekend in the Northern Plains, but, again, the world supply limits some of that impact, and Kansas City is focused on the rainfall recharging soil moisture in the Southern Plains. DTN reports Saudi Arabia bought 610,000 tons of hard wheat from the E.U., North and South America, and Australia, with the seller deciding the origin.
It was typically quiet in cattle country on Monday afternoon following the distribution of the new showlists. Ready numbers appear to be about steady with last week. There are reports from DTN that a few showlists are priced around 164.00 in the South and 255.00 plus in the North. The kill was estimated at 115,000 head, the same as last week, but down 4,000 from last year.
Boxed beef cutout values are lower on light to moderate demand and moderate offerings. Choice beef was down .91 at 249.02, and select was 1.26 lower at 233.28.
Live cattle contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange settled 30 higher to 50 lower in a light trade and the few players stepping in and out of the market had some significant control of price direction. While October held on to a moderate gain, pressure in the deferred contracts limited the ability to draw additional buyer support into the complex. October settled .07 higher at 156.35, and December was down .22 at 159.02.
Feeder cattle ended the session 22 points higher to 22 lower in a sluggish trade. Traders were caught between the potential for tight demand to keep buyers active, and growing questions as to just how strong beef demand will remain through most of the fall. September settled .22 lower at 229.25, and October was .07 lower at 225.85.
Feeder cattle receipts at the Joplin, Missouri Regional Stockyards total 4500 head today. Compared to last week, steer calves opened steady to 5.00 higher, with the increase on the 400 weights, heifer calves were steady. There was no early test on yearlings. Demand was good and supply was moderate. Feeder steers medium and large 1 weighing 500 to 600 pounds ranged from 242.00 to 263.00 per hundredweight. 5 to 6 weight heifers brought 232.00 to 253.00.
Lean hogs settled 55 higher to 45 points lower. Trade support firmed some in nearby lean contracts despite pressure in morning reports concerning both cash values and pork cutouts. The expectation that traders oversold the complex last week helped to draw light support through the nearby contracts, although traders in deferred summer 2015 contracts were much less convinced additional support can be maintained. October settled .37 higher at 106.07 and December was down .45 at 95.45.
Barrows and gilts in the Iowa/Minnesota direct trade closed .76 higher at 103.74 weighted average on a carcass basis, the West was up .58 at 103.49, and the East was not reported due to confidentiality. Missouri direct base carcass meat price closed 3.00 higher from 90.00 to 97.00. Barrows and gilts on a live basis at Midwest markets were steady to 3.00 higher from 63.00 to 74.00.
The pork carcass value FOB plant is 2.28 higher at 108.85. Loins showed the biggest gain of over 8.00.
The potential damage tied to PED is still a big guessing game, according to DTN’s John Harrington. While the negative supply impact should lessen in magnitude moving forward, new cases of the virus continue to be reported. Serious concerns remain that the incidence of cases will increase again as fall and winter weather is more conducive to the spreading of the virus.
Monday’s hog slaughter at an estimated 404,000 head, is up 4,000 from last week, but down 28,000 from last year.
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