The USDA has lowered its 2017 production outlook for corn from July, while raising the estimate for soybeans. This is the first set of field based production numbers of the year, with widely varied weather during the course of the growing season.
As of August 1st, this year’s corn crop is expected to be 14.153 billion bushels with an average yield of 169.5 bushels per acre, down from both last month’s projections of 14.255 billion with an average yield of 170.7 and the 2016 totals of 15.148 billion bushels with an average yield of 174.6 bushels per acre, but potentially the third largest crop and yield on record and more than what many analysts were expecting. Harvest area is seen at 83.496 million acres, compared to 86.748 million a year ago.
Soybeans are pegged at 4.381 billion bushels with an average yield of 49.4 bushels per acre. That would be a bigger crop than 2016’s total of 4.307 billion bushels, but with a lower average yield; last year’s average was 52.1 bushels per acre. In July, the USDA had beans at 4.260 billion bushels with an average yield of 48.0 bushels per acre. Harvested area is expected to be a record 88.731 million acres, compared to 82.736 million last year. The USDA says that if realized, record yields would be achieved in Missouri, Delaware, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, and South Carolina.
Production for all types of wheat is projected at 1.739 billion bushels with an average yield of 45.6 bushels per acre, compared to 2.310 billion bushels with an average yield of 52.6 bushels per acre in 2016. Winter wheat production is seen at 1.287 billion bushels, compared to 1.672 billion a year ago. By type, hard red winter is pegged at 758.372 million bushels, with soft red at 306.118 million, and white winter at 185.029 million bushels. The average yield is pegged at 50.0 bushels per acre, compared to 49.7 last month and 55.3 last year. The average yield for Illinois could be a new record high. The harvested area is expected to be 25.760 million acres, compared to 30.222 million in 2016. Spring wheat is projected at 401.554 million acres, compared to 423 million a month ago 534.027 million a year ago, with an average yield of 38.3 bushels per acre, compared to 40.3 last month and 47.2 last year. By type, hard red spring wheat is expected to total 364.210 million bushels, with white at 37.344 million and durum at 50.535 million bushels. Harvested area for spring wheat is seen at 10.467 million acres, compared to 11.303 million in 2016.
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|World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report (WASDE)|
The World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) serves as USDA’s focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. and world agriculture. The Board coordinates, reviews, and approves the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, houses OCE's Joint Agricultural Weather Facility, and coordinates USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum.