Canadian dry pea intentions for 2016 may be up more than 16% from a year earlier, but that increase could still ultimately prove higher yet, according to analyst Brian Voth.
Speaking as part of MGEX-sponsored crop call, Voth of Prairie Farm Consulting said he was actually a little surprised Thursday’s Statistics Canada acreage report didn’t show nationwide dry pea above the 4.28 million acres reported (see graph below)
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Even as it is, that would be a new record high planted area for peas, but given the strong demand for seed that was seen across the Prairies over the course of the winter, Voth said he was still expecting more. In fact, some seed retailers were sold out of dry pea seed as early as December, he said.
“I’m kind of wondering about this number; if we don’t eventually end up a little higher, especially given where (pea) prices were all winter long.”
In the No. 1 production province of Saskatchewan, dry pea area for this year is pegged at 2.31 million acres, up from 2.13 million in 2015 and but down from the 2.6 million acres seeded in both 2014 and 2012.
At 1.78 million acres, Alberta dry pea intentions are up from 1.44 million in 2015, while producers in Manitoba said they intend to plant 155,000 acres to dry peas, more than double the 70,000 planted a year earlier.
But while, he thinks dry pea acreage for this year could still go higher, Voth admitted planted area could quickly go south again in 2017, especially in southern Manitoba, which is not traditionally a big pea-producing region. All it will take, he said, is a decent pea crop in Canada and a return to more typical weather and pulse production in India – the main buyer of Canadian peas – to create a big enough supply to send prices sharply lower.
Much of the run up in Prairie pea prices this year is being attributed to strong import demand from India in the wake of dry weather that limited that country’s output.
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