That’s the conclusion of the seventh edition of Canada’s Food Price Report, published for the first time this year at Dalhousie University.
Built on the expertise of authors and advisors from four different Dalhousie faculties — Management, Computer Science, Science and Agriculture — the Food Price Report is led by Sylvain Charlebois, dean of the Faculty of Management. The popular annual report forecasts food prices for the upcoming year across different sectors and analyzes trends in Canada’s food industries.
“Food pricing affects all Canadians,” says Dr. Charlebois, who previously led the project out of the University of Guelph. “It affects our quality of life. It’s top of mind for everyone every single day when we go out to buy food, whether at a restaurant or at a grocery store. And many Canadians struggle to cope with fluctuating food prices.”
The study estimates food inflation will increase in 2017, driven by a falling loonie and U.S. president-elect Donald Trump's first year in the White House and the expected rise in retail prices will affect beef, pork and poultry as well as vegetables, fish and other types of seafood. Restaurant costs are also expected to rise by two to four per cent.
The study says the sweet spot for food inflation is between one and two per cent, a rate it says is manageable for restaurateurs, grocery stores and consumers.
Charlebois says he wouldn't be surprised if next year's food inflation surpassed four per cent and went on to say, "I think 2016 was volatile and 2017 will be, at the very least, equally as volatile.”
Food prices fluctuated this year, rising rapidly before later easing off. In October, food prices recorded their first year-over-year drop in nearly 17 years, according to Statistics Canada.
Charlebois expects the cost of food to remain fairly stable over the holidays and into the New Year before starting to edge up around April. The two biggest factors behind that will be the Canadian dollar and the incoming Trump administration, he says.
Depending on where they live, Canadians will experience different levels of sticker shock at the grocery store and in restaurants, the report says.
Those living in Ontario and B.C. should prepare for above-average food inflation -- around four to five per cent, says Charlebois.
The study says residents of Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, Quebec, Manitoba and Alberta should enjoy below-average price increases, while the remaining provinces and the Northwest Territories should expect average rises in food costs.
Source: Meatbusiness