Rainfall has been abundant in most areas of the United States. The June 30, 2015, U.S. Drought Monitor indicated very little or no drought remaining in the United States, except in the areas west of the Rocky Mountains. In some areas, rainfall and storms have hampered wheat and hay harvests and adversely impacted other agricultural activities and commodity quality. Current precipitation could be sufficient in much of the country to support pasture use plans through the rest of the
summer and into fall.
Weekly federally inspected beef cow slaughter has continued to decline year over year, reflecting the effect much-improved pasture conditions are having on the beef cow herd. At the same time, dairy cow slaughter has increased slightly year over year, but not by enough to offset the effect of declining beef cow slaughter on total cow slaughter. The increasing dairy cow slaughter is likely in response to lower year-over-year milk prices. Further beef cow retention will keep a lid on cow slaughter for the foreseeable future.
Weekly feeder cattle sale volumes at the Oklahoma National Stockyards have continued to decline year over year, and prices have held up in recent weeks. Prices for light-weight feeders have averaged 27 percent higher year over -year since this past January, with heifer prices showing the most strength. This may reflect the declining representation of heifers in steer-heifer numbers, likely due to heifer retention for expanding the cow herd. The July Cattle report from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will give further indication of followthrough on heifer retention and cow-herd expansion plans for 2015. In addition to providing support for feeder heifer prices, declining proportions of heifers in feedlots—along with more time on better quality pasture—may be contributing to the slightly heavier estimated feedlot placement weights, as generally heavier steers constitute larger proportions of the mix. This is similar to the boosting effect that fewer heifers in the slaughter mix is having on average dressed weights for all cattle.
NASS’ Cattle on Feed, released June 19, 2015, showed cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000-plus head in June up 1 percent compared with last June. The second quarter likely experienced lower cattle placements than second quarter 2014, in part due to producers holding cattle longer for grazing on the newly lush pasture. Cattle on Feed reported cattle over 800 pounds placed in May totaled 710,000 head, which is equal to May 2014 but may give 2015 the largest secondquarter share for that weight category since the series began in 1996. In addition, May 2015 marketings were the lowest since the series began in 1996. Marketings are expected to be higher in the early part of 2016 compared with 2015 and 2014 as stocker operators and other backgrounders take advantage of good forage conditions and retain feeder cattle on pasture longer, pushing placements into feedlots further into fall and winter.
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Source: USDA