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Ron Plain: Cattle Outlook

Ron Plain and Scott Brown
University of Missouri
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U.S. beef exports were up 3.2% in February compared to a year ago thanks to increased shipments to Japan, Mexico and Hong Kong. Imports of beef into the U.S. were down 2.0% in February with less beef coming in from Brazil, Uruguay, and Mexico. During February, beef exports equaled 10.22% of production and imports equaled 9.56% of production. This was the tenth consecutive month with exports greater than imports, which is encouraging given that U.S. beef prices are at record levels.

Cattle imports were up 0.3% in February with fewer coming north from Mexico, but more coming south from Canada.

Domestic meat demand in February was up 2.7% with beef demand up 0.6% compared to a year ago. Export demand for U.S. beef was up 10.7% in February.

The April WASDE raised both USDA's forecast of 2014 beef production and their price forecast for the year. They now predict 2014 beef production will be down 4.5% from last year to the lowest level since 2004. Their forecast for fed cattle prices is for the average to be somewhere between $144/cwt and $151/cwt. That is far above last year's record of $125.89/cwt.

Fed cattle sales were extremely light again this week. Through Thursday, the 5-area average price for slaughter steers sold on a live weight basis was $149.32/cwt, down $2.11 from last week's record price, but up $22.09 from a year ago. The 5 area average dressed price for steers was $240.39/cwt.

Boxed beef prices were lower again this week. This morning the boxed beef cutout value for choice carcasses was $222.27/cwt, down $6.90 from the previous Friday. The select carcass cutout is $212.96/cwt, down $5.49 from last week.

This week's cattle slaughter totaled 573,000 head, down 1.7% from the previous week and down 5.6% from the corresponding week last year. The average steer dressed weight for the week ending on March 29 was 852 pounds, down 4 pounds from the week before, but up 1 pound from a year earlier.

Feeder cattle prices at this week's Oklahoma City auction were mostly steady to $3 higher than the week before. This week's prices for medium and large frame #1 steers by weight were: 400-450# $210-$255.50, 450-500# $220-$244, 500-550# $207-$224, 550-600# $198-$223, 600-650# $186-$215, 650-700# $180-$207.50, 700-750# $173.50-$187, 750-800# $167-$179, 800-900# $161-$174, and 900-1000# $154-$163/cwt.

Cattle futures were higher this week. The April live cattle futures contract closed at $144.85/cwt today, up $1.80 from last week's close. June fed cattle settled at $135.77, up 97 cents for the week. August settled at $133.77/cwt, up $1.50 from the previous Friday. October cattle closed at $138.22/cwt.

Feeder cattle futures were also higher for the week. The April feeder cattle contract ended the week at $179.50/cwt, up $1.80 for the week. May feeders closed at $180.07/cwt, up $1.57 from the previous Friday.

Source: AGEBB


Trending Video

Advancement Through Science: The Purpose of the Beef Cattle Research Council

Video: Advancement Through Science: The Purpose of the Beef Cattle Research Council

Every time a beef animal is sold in Canada, the Canadian Beef Cattle Check-Off is collected, and a portion of it funds research and extension through the Beef Cattle Research Council.

The BCRC has a vision of a transparent, competitive and sustainable Canadian beef industry. And, we’re on a mission to support growth in beef demand, increase productivity and earn public trust. Research investments by producers are making that happen.

The BCRC works to advance the Canadian beef industry through industry-led research and extension. We create practical tools and resources that help producers make improvements in:

?? animal health and welfare,

?? forage and grassland productivity

?? feed efficiency and nutrition

?? beef quality and safety and

??environmental sustainability.

Guided by a board of producers from across Canada, the BCRC has one goal -- to make every producer-paid research dollar count. For each dollar invested through the Canadian Beef Cattle Check-Off, we leverage two to three dollars from other funding sources.

By bridging the gap between research and real-life application, we empower producers to make economical, science-based decisions to help drive innovation, sustainability and profitability in their operations.

Where industry investment and collaboration intersect with research and ranching – that’s where we find advancement through science and the real purpose of the Beef Cattle Research Council.