By Bruce Cochrane.
The Vice-President Pork Analysis with EMI Analytics says talk of changing U.S. trade policy is creating uncertainty in hog markets but, as yet, has not impacted prices.
As a result of increased U.S. pork production, resulting from higher than year ago slaughter hog numbers, growth of the breeding herd and expanded capacity coming on line to process those hogs, access to export markets is expected to become even more important than it already is.
Dr. Steve Meyer, the Vice-President Pork Analysis with EMI Analytics, says talk of changing U.S. trade policy has been a major point of uncertainty.
Dr. Steve Meyer-EMI Analytics:
I don't think it's had much impact yet because I don't think we've actually seen any changes yet.
We've seen a lot of talk about changes.
We've seen a few shots fired across the bow of different trading partners and we're going to continue to see those.
We have to remember though that this President is a deal maker.
He is a negotiator, kind of a wheeler dealer kind of guy.
He's going to position himself for future negotiations and I don't know that that's a bad thing.
We've said we want to renegotiate the NAFTA and the Canadians and the Mexicans have agreed, let's renegotiate.
I don't think it's a bad thing to renegotiate a 20 some year old deal because the world has changed.
The questions is where do you end up at the end of it and we're concerned about that because Mexico is our largest customer, Canada is about number four on the list and the TPP is gone.
The administration has said they want to basically negotiate bilateral agreements to replace it.
That's going to take awhile so I don't think you're going to see impacts of the trade policy, trade negotiations things this year.
Dr. Meyer notes the U.S. imports more from Mexico and China than it exports so the U.S. is not an unimportant market that those countries can throw away with negotiations.
He suggests the U.S. is still negotiating from a position of strength and, whether you like him or not, the U.S. President is well trained in these things and he is a deal maker.
Source: Farmscape