U.S. wheat exports for 2015/16 are lowered 50 million bushels from the October forecast as the United States continues to lose market share in world wheat trade. At 800 million bushels, the current export projection is the lowest since 1971/72 when U.S. wheat exports totaled 599 million bushels. In accordance with reduced disappearance, ending stocks are increased by 50 million this month. Now projected at 911 million bushels, ending stocks are the highest since 2009/10 and are up 158 million bushels over the 2014/15 ending stocks estimate. The midpoint all wheat season average price remains at $5.00 per bushel with the price range narrowed by 5 cents on the high and low ends of the range.
World wheat trade is projected slightly higher this month and incorporates several offsetting changes with higher exports in Canada, in the European Union (EU), as well as in Brazil and India, and a reduction in Australian exports. World wheat production is revised slightly upward as the expanded output projected for the EU is mostly offset by reductions in Australia, Russia, and Egypt. Wheat use is projected fractionally higher, while ending stock prospects are reduced.
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Source: USDA