Soybean Ending Stocks are Projected at 140 Million Bushels
Total U.S. oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 91.4 million tons, up 3.2 million from last month due to higher soybean, peanut, and cottonseed production. Soybean production is forecast at 2.971 billion bushels, up 111 million from last month. The soybean yield is forecast at 39.3 bushels per acre, up 1.5 bushels as several states show the benefit of late-season rainfall. Soybean crush is raised 20 million bushels to 1.56 billion based on increased soybean meal export prospects. Soybean exports are raised 80 million bushels to 1.345 billion reflecting larger supplies and the strong pace of sales through October. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 140 million bushels, up 10 million from last month.
Soybean oil supplies for 2012/13 are raised this month as increased production more than offsets lower beginning stocks. Soybean oil domestic use is projected at 18 billion pounds with biodiesel use projected at 4.9 billion pounds. Soybean oil stocks are raised 250 million pounds to 1.52 billion on increased supplies.
Prices for soybeans and products are all reduced this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price range is projected at $13.90 to $15.90 per bushel, down 35 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $455 to $485 per short ton, down 15 dollars on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 51 to 55 cents per pound, down two cents on both ends.
Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 462.1 million tons, up 4.4 million tons from last month. Global soybean production accounts for about 75 percent of the increase with larger crops projected the United States and Ukraine. Increased harvested area and yields are projected for Ukraine as harvest nears completion. Global rapeseed production is raised due to larger crops in EU-27 and Belarus. Other changes include increased sunflowerseed production for Ukraine which is more than offset by reductions for Argentina and EU-27. Indonesia palm oil production is increased for both 2011/12 and 1012/13 based on increased area and yield projections.
Global oilseed trade for 2012/13 is projected at 114.7 million tons, up 2.4 million with increased soybean exports projected for the United States and Ukraine. Soybean imports are raised for several countries including China, Taiwan, EU-27, and Turkey. Global oilseed crush is raised 3.3 million tons to 392.4 million with higher projections for soybean crush in China, the United States, and EU-27, higher sunflowerseed crush in Ukraine, and higher rapeseed crush in China and Belarus. Increased crush results in higher projections for global vegetable oil and oilmeal production, trade, use, and stocks. Vegetable oil stocks are raised 2.5 million tons to 15.3 million with Indonesia palm oil stocks accounting for about half of the increase.
Source: USDA