SUGAR: Beet sugar production for fiscal year 2016/17 is forecast at 4.988 million short tons, raw value (STRV), an increase of 56,000 over last month based on additional sugarbeets expected to be processed in August and September 2017 from the 2017/18 crop. Texas cane sugar production for 2016/17 is increased 2,775 STRV to 138,300 based on final processor reporting. Ending stocks are increased by the sum of the supply adjustments to 1.536 million STRV, implying a stocks-to-use ratio of 12.3 percent.
Beet sugar production for 2017/18 is increased 38,000 STRV to 4.988 million based on analysis of this spring’s planting pace and current crop conditions, and on the proportion of the 2017/18 sugarbeet crop expected to be processed before October 1. Imports from Mexico are reduced by 526,396 STRV from last month to 1.774 million. Ending stocks are decreased by the sum of the supply adjustments to 1.104 million STRV, implying a stocks-to-use ratio of 8.8 percent.
Mexico 2016/17 sugar production is decreased by 201,245 metric tons (MT) to 5.985 million based on the production pace as the harvest season approaches its end. Exports to other countries are increased by 40,000 MT to 150,000 based on the pace of exports to non-U.S. destinations and exports made to the U.S. re-export import program. Ending stocks for 2016/17 are therefore reduced by 241,245 MT to 1.101 million.
Mexico 2017/18 production is reduced 125,000 MT to 6.100 million based on area for harvest at 790,000 hectares, sugarcane production of 54.465 million MT, and recovery of 11.2 percent. Imports, domestic deliveries for consumption and IMMEX, and exports to non-U.S. destinations are the same as last month. Exports to the United States are reduced by 450,508 MT to 1.519 million. Exports to the United States are based on the lower of the following: (1) U.S. Needs of 1.886 million MT as defined in the Suspension Agreements but assuming additionally that U.S. specialty sugar imports will be set at the same level as initially established for 2016/17; or (2) the export level that yields an ending stocks-to-consumption ratio of 18.0 percent. The 18-percent stocks-to-consumption is an assumed lower bound necessary for use until mid-December 2018 when the new Mexico sugarcane harvest is well underway.
Source : USDA WASDE