LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2017 red meat and poultry production is raised from last month as higher forecast beef and broiler production more than offset declines in pork and turkey production. The beef production forecast is raised on both higher cattle slaughter and heavier carcass weights. Forecast pork production is reduced as lower slaughter in mid-2017 more than offsets higher fourth-quarter slaughter. Second-half carcass weights are reduced. Broiler production is raised slightly on recent production data. Turkey production is lowered on recent production data and a slow recovery in demand during the second half of the
year. Egg production is unchanged.
For 2018, red meat and poultry production forecasts are reduced. Forecast beef production is reduced from the previous month on lower expected steer and heifer slaughter in the first part of the year. The pork production forecast is reduced. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated that producers intend to farrow slightly more hogs over the next two quarters and growth in pigs per litter is expected to remain modest. Forecast turkey production is reduced from last month as current price weakness is expected to slow the pace of growth. Broiler and egg production forecasts are unchanged. The beef import forecast is raised for 2017 on recent trade data. The beef export forecast is raised as global demand is expected to strengthen during the second half of the year. For 2018, both beef import and export forecasts are raised.
Pork, poultry, and egg trade forecasts for 2017 and 2018 are unchanged from the previous month. Cattle price forecasts for 2017 are lowered from last month as prices have weakened and fed cattle supplies will remain ample. Forecast 2018 cattle prices are unchanged. Hog price forecasts are raised for 2017 on strong domestic and export demand. Demand strength is expected to carry over into 2018, and forecast hog prices are raised. Broiler prices are raised for 2017 on current price strength, while turkey prices are lowered on weak demand. No changes are made for 2018 broiler and turkey price forecasts.
Egg prices are raised slightly for 2017 on recent data but no changes are made to 2018 forecasts. The 2017 and 2018 milk production forecasts are lowered from last month. Growth in milk per cow has been slower than expected, and the forecast growth rate is reduced. Fat basis import forecasts for 2017 and 2018 are unchanged from the previous month. Fat-basis export forecasts for 2017 and 2018 are raised on continued robust exports of cheese. On a skim-solids basis, imports for 2017 were reduced from the previous month on lower expected purchases of milk protein concentrates (MPC), but the 2018 import forecast remains unchanged. The 2018 skim solids import forecast remains unchanged. Skim-solid exports for 2017 and 2018 are raised as nonfat dry milk (NDM) and cheese shipments are expected to remain strong. For 2017, cheese and whey price forecasts are reduced from the previous month, while butter prices are forecast higher. The NDM price forecast is unchanged but the range is narrowed.
Cheese prices for 2018 are reduced while butter prices are raised on continued strong demand. NDM and whey price forecasts for 2018 are unchanged from last month. The 2017 and 2018 Class III price forecasts are lowered from last month in line with lower component product prices. The Class IV price forecasts are increased for 2017 and 2018 reflecting higher butter prices. The 2017 all milk price is forecast at $17.65 to $17.95 and the price for 2018 is $18.00 to $19.00 per cwt.