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WASDE: Projected U.S. Wheat Supplies for Are Raised 10 Million Bushels

Sep 11, 2014
By USDA WASDE

Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2014/15 are raised 10 million bushels with higher expected imports of Hard Red Spring (HRS) from Canada. This reflects higher stocks in Canada as well as the strong shipment pace to date. Domestic use is unchanged, but exports are lowered 25 million bushels with larger global wheat supplies and increased competition. Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat exports are lowered 15 million bushels due to the slow pace of sales and shipments to date. HRS wheat exports are lowered 10 million bushels with increased competition expected from Canada. A 5-million- bushel increase in Soft Red Winter wheat exports is offset by a 5-million-bushel reduction for White wheat. Projected all wheat ending stocks are raised 35 million bushels. The projected range for the 2014/15 season-average farm price is lowered 40 cents at the midpoint to $5.50 to $6.30 per bushel. Global 2014/15 wheat supplies are raised 6.6 million tons with increases in both beginning stocks and production. Beginning stocks are up 2.8 million tons led by a 2-million-ton increase for China. The China increase reflects a 2013/14 reduction in wheat feeding; however, wheat feeding is raised for 2014/15. Both changes are made to better reflect relative prices for wheat and corn in China since summer 2013. Canada beginning stocks are up 0.8 million tons reflecting the latest stocks estimate from Statistics Canada. World production is raised 3.9 million tons to a record 720.0 million. The largest production increases are for EU and Ukraine, up 3.1 million tons and 2.0 million tons, respectively. Both changes reflect updated government data. Australia production is down 0.5 million tons reflecting persistent dryness in the northeas tern growing areas and developing dryness in the more important western and southeastern growing regions. Other major production changes include a 0.4-million-ton increase for Morocco and a 1-million-ton reduction for Algeria.

Global wheat consumption for 2014/15 is raised 3.2 million tons mostly reflecting the higher feed use expected for China. Wheat feeding is also raised 0.5 million tons for Iran. Global wheat trade is raised with the largest import increases for Algeria, Pakistan, and Iran. Exports are raised 1.0 million tons each for Canada, EU, and Ukraine all due to larger supplies. Exports are raised 0.5 million tons each for Brazil and Kazakhstan also because of large supplies. Despite record projected consumption, global wheat supplies rise faster than use, boosting ending stocks 3.4 million tons to 196.4 million.
 

 

U.S. Wheat Supply and Use  1/   
                
 2012/132013/14 Est. 2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.   
  AugSep  
   Million Acres   
Area Planted55.756.256.556.5  
Area Harvested 48.945.246.246.2  
   Bushels   
Yield per Harvested Acre46.347.243.943.9  
   Million Bushels   
Beginning Stocks743718590590  
Production2266213020302030  
Imports123169160170  
  Supply, Total3131301627792789  
Food945951960960  
Seed73777676  
Feed and Residual384222155155  
  Domestic, Total1401125011911191  
Exports10121176925900  
  Use, Total2414242621162091  
Ending Stocks718590663698  
  CCC Inventory00 0  
  Free Stocks718590 698  
     Outstanding Loans85 0  
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu)  2/7.776.875.80 - 6.805.50 - 6.30  
       
                
U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use   
                
 Year beginning June 1Hard Red
Winter
Hard Red
Spring
Soft Red
Winter
WhiteDurumTotal 
      MillionBushels   
 2013/14 (Est.) Beginning Stocks 3431651246323718 
  Production 744490565268622130 
    Supply, Total 3/ 11067337103391293016 
    Domestic Use 424318313118771250 
  Exports 446246283171311176 
    Use, Total 8715645962891072426 
  Ending Stocks, Total 2351691145022590 
         
 2014/15 (Proj.) Beginning Stocks 2351691145022590 
  Production 729529466245612030 
    Supply, Total 3/ 9847736023031272789 
    Domestic Use 443293266106831191 
  Exports 34025014514520900 
    Use, Total 7835434112511032091 
  Ending Stocks, TotalSep2012301915224698 
 Ending Stocks, TotalAug1862101964724663 
           
                
Note:  Totals may not add due to rounding.  1/ Marketing year beginning June 1.  2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers.  3/ Includes imports.
                


Source: USDA WASDE

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