LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for total red meat and poultry production for 2016 is reduced from last month as beef, pork, and broiler production forecasts are lowered. Turkey production is raised. Beef production is forecast lower on lower expected third quarter steer and heifer slaughter. Pork production for 2016 is lowered on expectations of slightly lower carcass weights for the third quarter. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on September 30, providing an indication of producer farrowing intentions into early 2017. Broiler production is lowered on slower expected growth in the second half of the year. Bird weights have been lower than previously expected. Turkey production for second-half 2016 is raised on production and hatchery data. No changes are made to the 2017 production forecasts for red meat or turkey, but the production forecast for broilers was reduced. No changes are made to the egg production forecasts for 2016 or 2017.
Beef import forecasts for 2016 and 2017 are unchanged. Beef exports for 2016 are raised on improving trade prospects in a number of countries, but the forecast is unchanged for 2017. The pork export forecast for 2016 is lowered. Broiler and turkey exports are lowered for 2016 and 2017 as the recovery in exports remains slower than expected.
Cattle, hog, and broiler prices for second-half 2016 are reduced from last month as relatively weak prices are expected through the remainder of the year. The turkey price is raised on current price strength. The cattle price for 2017 is lowered and a small reduction is made to the first-quarter 2017 hog price. Poultry prices are unchanged from last month. Egg prices are lowered for 2017.
The milk production forecast for 2016 is raised from last month as the cow inventory appears to have steadied in the face of expected improvements in returns. The production forecast for 2017 is raised to reflect slightly more rapid growth in milk per cow. Fat basis exports are raised for 2016 and 2017. For 2016, cheese and cream exports have remained firm, and strength in whole milk powder (WMP) exports is expected to carry into 2017. On a skimsolids basis, the export forecasts for 2016 and 2017 are raised on higher WMP and whey sales. Both fat and skim-solids basis ending stocks for 2016 are forecast higher as butter and cheese stocks remain high; fat basis ending stocks are raised for 2017 as well.
Cheese and butter prices are lowered for 2016 and 2017 as supplies remain high, but prices for nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey are forecast higher as the global supply tightens and demand strengthens. The Class III price is lowered for 2016 and 2017 as the reduction in the cheese price more than offsets the whey price increase. The Class IV price is lowered for 2016 as the lower butter price more than offsets the higher NDM price but is raised for 2017 as higher NDM prices more than offset the lower butter price forecast. The all milk price is forecast lower at $16.10 to $16.30 per cwt for 2016 but is unchanged from last month at $16.15 to $17.15 per cwt for 2017.
Source : USDA WASDE