LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2017 forecast of total red meat and poultry
production is reduced from last month on lower beef and pork production forecasts. Beef
production is lowered on the current pace of cattle slaughter and lighter carcass weights.
The pork production forecast is lowered on smaller-than-anticipated hog slaughter this
quarter although partly offset by higher carcass weights. The broiler forecast is raised on a
revision to third-quarter production data. The turkey production forecast is unchanged from
the previous month. The egg production forecast is lowered on recent hatchery data. For
2018, the total red meat and poultry forecast is lowered from last month on lower expected
beef and pork production. Beef production is forecast lower, reflecting slightly lighter carcass
weights in 2018. Pork production is reduced as fractionally heavier first-quarter carcass
weights only partially offset smaller-than-expected hog slaughter. USDA will release its
Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on December 22 which will provide an indication of
producers’ farrowing intentions into the first half of 2018. Broiler and turkey production
forecasts are unchanged from the previous month. The egg production forecast is raised for
The beef and turkey export forecasts are raised for 2017 on strong global demand which is
expected to carry into first-quarter 2018. No change is made to pork and broiler trade
forecasts. The egg export forecast is raised for 2017, supported by expectations of solid
demand and recent trade data while the egg import forecast is reduced. No change is made
to the 2018 egg trade forecasts.
The cattle price forecast for 2017 is lowered on recent prices, but the 2018 cattle price
forecast is unchanged from the previous month. The hog price forecast for 2017 is raised on
recent demand strength and as this strength is expected to carry into 2018, hog price
forecasts are raised for next year. The broiler price forecast is lowered for 2017, but the
forecast is unchanged for 2018. Turkey price forecasts are lowered for 2017 and 2018 on
relatively weak demand. Egg prices are raised for 2017 and 2018 on strength in demand.
The milk production forecast is lowered for 2017 on slower growth in milk per cow. The
slower growth in milk per cow is expected to carry into 2018 and combined with an expected
slower rate of growth in cow numbers, the 2018 milk production forecast is lowered. The
2017 and 2018 fat basis import and export forecasts are unchanged from the previous
month. On a skim-solids basis, the 2017 and 2018 export forecasts are raised on higher
expected whey exports. No changes are made to 2017 and 2018 skim-solids basis import
Price forecasts for cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk are lowered for 2017 on current price
weakness and slower demand. The 2017 whey price forecast is unchanged at the midpoint.
All dairy product price forecasts are reduced for 2018 on pressure from large stocks and
slower expected demand. Class III and Class IV price forecasts are lowered for 2017 and
2018, reflecting the lower product prices. All milk prices are forecast lower at $17.60 to
$17.70 per cwt for 2017and $16.65 to $17.45 per cwt for 2018.