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WASDE: U.S. Corn Crop Projected Down With Lower Forecast Area & Yield

COARSE GRAINS: The U.S. feed-grain outlook for 2018/19 is for lower production, domestic use, exports and ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 14.0 billion bushels, down from last year with a lower forecast area and yield. The yield projection of 174.0 bushels per acre is based on a weatheradjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather, estimated using the 1988-2017 time period. With beginning stocks down from a year ago, total corn supplies at 16.3 billion bushels, if realized would be down 675 million from the prior year.
 
Total U.S. corn use in 2018/19 is forecast to decline modestly from a year ago on reductions in domestic use and exports. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is projected to rise 75 million bushels to 7.1 billion, driven by an expected increase in the amount of corn used to produce ethanol for fuel and growth in nonethanol FSI. Corn used to produce ethanol is up 50 million bushels mostly reflecting expectations of gasoline consumption growth. Sorghum FSI is up 55 million bushels on an expected increase in the amount of sorghum used to produce ethanol. Feed and residual use for corn is projected lower as a smaller crop, increased use of ethanol by-products, and higher expected prices more than offset growth in grain consuming animal units. 
 
U.S. corn exports are forecast to decline 125 million bushels in 2018/19. Reduced exports out of Argentina and Brazil during 2017/18 (local marketing years beginning March 2018) are expected to boost U.S. exports during the first half of 2018/19. However, a nearly 265-million-bushel increase in the combined corn exports for Ukraine and Russia in 2018/19 will likely increase competition for the United States, reducing the forecast U.S. share of global corn trade from a year ago. With total U.S. corn supply falling faster than use, 2018/19 U.S. ending stocks are down 500 million bushels from last year to 1.7 billion. The season-average farm price is projected at $3.30 to $4.30 per bushel, up 40 cents at the midpoint from 2017/18.
 
The global coarse grain outlook for 2018/19 is for higher production, increased use and lower ending stocks. Corn production is forecast up from a year ago, with the largest increases for China, Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, and Russia. Global corn use is expected to grow 2 percent, while global corn imports are projected to increase 5 percent. Notable forecast increases in corn imports include Vietnam, China, Bangladesh, Iran, Malaysia, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia. Global corn ending stocks are down 35.8 million tons from a year ago, and if realized would be the lowest since 2012/13.
 
For China, total corn supply is down 11 million tons in 2018/19, as larger production and imports are more than offset by lower beginning stocks. Corn area is projected higher based on current cash and futures prices that are above a year ago. Total coarse grain imports are forecast at 16.1 million tons, down 1.1 million from 2017/18, but still the fourth largest in the world behind Mexico, Japan, and the EU. World market prices for coarse grains are expected to remain below China’s domestic corn prices, particularly in the feed deficit south, thus driving expected demand for imported feedstuffs in 2018/19. 
 
 

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