SUGAR: Total production for 2015/16 is forecast at 8.450 million short tons, raw value (STRV), a decrease of 76,000 from 2014/15. Beet sugar production for the 2015/16 August-July period will total about 4.900 million STRV, but fiscal year 2015/16 production is forecast at 4.770 million as 11 percent WASDE-541-4 of the 2015/16 sugarbeet crop will be harvested in August-September and thus will be accounted for in the estimate of the fiscal year 2014/15 crop. Cane sugar production is forecast at 3.680 million STRV,down 85,000 as production yields return to trend and area remains about the same as 2014/15.
U.S. 2015/16 imports are forecast at 3.810 million STRV. Tariff-rate quota imports are forecast at statutory levels consistent with international agreements. Shortfall is forecast at 99,208 STRV, the same as estimated for 2014/15. The additional specialty sugar TRQ has not been established and is set at zero. Imports from Mexico are forecast at 2.116 million STRV. Deliveries for human consumption are forecast at 11.985 million STRV, 126,000 higher than 2014/15. Ending stocks are forecast at 1.547 million STRV, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 12.6 percent.
Mexico 2015/16 sugar production is forecast at 6.000 million metric tons (MT), the same as 2014/15 but assuming about 20,000 fewer hectares to be harvested and a greater sugar yield per harvested hectare. Exports to the United States for 2015/16 are forecast at 1.811 million MT, based on the terms of the Agreement Suspending the Countervailing Duty Investigations on Sugar from Mexico (“Target Quantity of U.S. Needs”). Although the U.S. additional specialty sugar TRQ has not been established,for purposes of the U.S. Needs calculation, it is assumed at the same level as in 2014/15. Deliveries for human consumption for 2015/16 are forecast at 4.250 million MT, the same as in 2014/15. Ending stocks are forecast residually at 667,604 MT, implying a lower than historical average stocks-toconsumption ratio of 15.7 percent.
Source: USDA WASDE