SUGAR: Sugar production for the fiscal year 2016/17 is increased 63,904 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 9.272 million resulting from new sugar crop forecasts made by NASS in the September Crop Production report. Cane sugar production in Florida is increased by 95,536 STRV based on a higher sugar per acre implied by NASS’s Florida sugarcane yield forecast increase from last month of 2.0 tons/acre to 41.2 tons/acre. Partially offsetting is a beet sugar production decline of 31,632 STRV based on a lower sugar per acre implied by NASS’s sugarbeet yield forecast decrease of 0.1 tons/acre to 31.3 and an area harvested reduction of 3,000 acres.
Beginning stocks for 2016/17 are increased by 70,951 STRV due to changes made to 2015/16 total supply that flowed into the ending stock estimate. The estimate of 2015/16 beet sugar production is increased by 75,951 STRV, primarily based on a lower sugarbeet pile shrink factor implied by Sweetener Market Data (SMD) than was forecast by processors in previous months. Imports for 2015/16 are reduced by 5,000 STRV based on a reduction of 30,000 from Mexico that is partially offset by a pace-to-date increase of 25,000 for reexport imports. The reduction for Mexico reflects the entry of half of the 60,000 STRV of the expanded export access made in May by the Commerce Department at USDA’s request.
Imports for 2016/17 are reduced by 366,000 STRV to 2.652 million. All of the reduction is attributable to a decrease in imports from Mexico for 2016/17. Total use for 2016/17 is unchanged from last month. Ending stocks for 2016/17 are projected at 1.656 million STRV, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5 percent.
Beginning stocks for 2016/17 in Mexico are increased by 25,675 metric tons (MT) reflecting the reduction in 2015/16 exports to the United States. Exports for 2016/17 to the United States are projected to decrease from last month by 313,236 MT to 860,199, based on changes made in this month’s WASDE projections for the United States as per the Countervailing Duty (CVD) Suspension Agreement of December 19, 2014 (“Target Quantity of U.S. Sugar Needs”). Ending stocks for 2016/17 are projected at 1.248 million MT, an amount projected to meet sugar supply requirements of domestic consumption and exports to the U.S. market for the first three months of the following marketing year. Exports for 2016/17 to non-U.S. destinations are projected residually at 223,963 MT.
Source : WASDE