SUGAR: U.S. sugar beginning stocks for 2015/16 are decreased by 77,955 short tons, raw value (STRV) due to changes made in the 2014/15 supply and use balances of less sugar imported from Mexico (100,000) but more specialty sugar imported (22,046) due to an increase in the refined sugar tariff rate quota (TRQ) on June 15. Changes made to 2014/15 beet sugar production and cane sugar production offset each other. Total 2015/16 sugar production is projected at 8.765 million STRV, an increase of 45,000 over last month. Cane sugar production is increased by 105,000 STRV to 3.785 million and beet sugar production is decreased by 60,000 to 4.980 million. Both changes stem from changes in area harvested based on forecasts published in NASS’s Acreage report of June 30.
Imports are forecast at 3.364 million STRV, an increase of 148,698. The Secretary of Agriculture established the raw and refined sugar TRQs last month on June 15. As expected, the raw sugar TRQ was established at the World Trade Organization (WTO) minimum access level and there was no change from last month in the forecast shortfall of 99,208 STRV. In addition to the refined sugar TRQ minimum access of 24,251, the Secretary announced additional refined sugar access of 121,254 STRV for specialty sugar. Imports from Mexico are forecast at 1.549 million STRV, 27,444 STRV higher than last month. Ending stocks are forecast at 1.648 million STRV, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5 percent.
Mexico 2014/15 production is estimated 45,000 metric tons (MT) higher than last month at 5.985 million as the sugarcane harvest is nearly complete. Total exports for 2014/15 are reduced by 135,583 MT based on pace-to-date. Exports to the United States are estimated at 1.220 million MT (85,583 less) and exports to other countries are estimated at 150,000 MT (50,000 less). For 2015/16, exports to the United States are forecast at 1.325 million MT, an increase based on the changes made in the July sugar WASDE for the United States as per the CVD Suspension Agreement.
Source: USDA WASDE