Monday's Closing Grain and Livestock Futures Prices
Dec. corn closed at $4.41 and 1/2, down 12 and 1/2 cents
Nov. soybeans closed at $12.82 and 3/4, down 37 cents
Oct. soybean meal closed at $409.90, down $10.00
Oct. soybean oil closed at 40.83, down 68 points
Dec. wheat closed at $6.78 and 1/2, down 4 and 1/2 cents
Oct. live cattle closed at $127.85, down 40 cents
Oct. lean hogs closed at $91.97, down 95 cents
Nov. crude oil closed at $102.33, down 54 cents
Dec. cotton closed at 87.21, up 58 points
Oct. Class III milk closed at $18.00, up 4 cents
Oct. gold closed at $1,326.50, down $11.90
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 15,129.67, down 128.57 points
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Market News and ReCap
Soybeans were lower on commercial and fund selling. Quarterly soybean stocks are down 17% on the year, but larger than expected at 141 million bushels, and USDA raised its 2012 production and harvested area figures for soybeans. USDA reports 67% of soybeans are dropping leaves, compared to 83% a year ago and the five year average of 74%, while 11% is harvested, compared to 39% last year and 20% on average, with 53% of beans rated good to excellent, up 3% on the week. Soybean meal and oil followed beans lower. South Korea’s Korea Feed Association canceled a tender for 55,000 tons of soybean meal and Nonghyup Feed Inc. bought 30,000 tons of soybean meal from India.
Corn was lower on fund and commercial selling. Quarterly corn stocks were also down 17% on the year, but above all analysts’ estimates at 824 million bushels. According to USDA, 96% of corn is dented, compared to 100% last year and 97% on average and 63% is mature, compared to 93% a year ago and 70% on average. 12% of this year’s crop is harvested, compared to 52% last year and 23% on average and 55% of the crop is in good to excellent shape, unchanged from a week ago. Ethanol futures were lower.
The wheat complex was mixed. Quarterly wheat stocks were 12% below a year ago and 2013 wheat production is seen at 2.13 billion bushels, down 6% from 2012, with a big year to year decline for hard red winter. For the spring crop, 95% is harvested, compared to 100% a year ago and 96% on average, while for winter wheat, 39% is planted, compared to 38% last year and 40% on average and 12% has emerged, compared to 12% a year ago and 15% on average. A group of South Korea flour mills bought 78,600 tons of U.S. wheat and 80,000 tons from Australia.
Cattle country was generally quiet on Monday afternoon following the distribution of the new showlists. Ready numbers appear to be mixed, smaller in the South, but generally lager in the North. Overall the fed offering appears to be about steady with last week. A few showlists have been priced around 128.00 to 129.00 in the South and 203.00 to 205.00 in the North. The cattle kill was estimated at 118,000 head, 5,000 less than last week and 7,000 below a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values were firm to higher on moderate demand and moderate offerings. Choice boxed beef was up .62 at 193.25 and select is 1.46 higher at 177.61.
Chicago Mercantile Exchange live cattle contracts settled unchanged to 40 points lower. Light to moderate pressure was evident in the live cattle complex on Monday. Traders had looked for increased support from outside markets, which tumbled lower based on both end of the month positioning and pressure following the USDA crop report. Trade was sluggish with losses contained mostly in a 20 to 40 point range. Even the firmness in boxed beef values was unable to draw buyers to the market. October settled .40 lower at 127.85, and December was down .10 at 131.97.
Feeder cattle contracts settled mixed but mostly higher. Moderate gains developed in the feeder pit following pressure in grain prices after the USDA crop report. Increased stocks of corn and soybeans could cause feed prices to continue to erode. October settled .02 lower at 164.10, and November was up .27 at 165.20.
Feeder cattle receipts at the Joplin, Missouri Regional Stockyards on Monday totaled 4500 head. Compared to last week, steer calves opened steady, heifer calves were 3.00 to 5.00 higher. Yearlings had no early test. Demand was moderate to good and supply was moderate. Feeder steers medium and large 1 weighing 600 to 700 pounds traded from 165.00 to 167.00. 5 to 6 weight heifers brought 148.00 to 158.00.
Lean hogs settled 20 to 150 points lower. Nearby hog futures tried to sort out any moves in Friday’s hogs and pigs report. The focus of the market was on herd expansion limiting any short term immediate supply pressure. Trade may bounce back and forth through the coming days, especially with the month and quarter end approaching. October settled .95 lower at 91.97 and December was down 1.50 at 86.62.
The pork carcass value was .04 lower at 102.02 FOB plant on a negotiated basis.
Barrows and gilts in the Iowa/Minnesota direct trade closed 2.91 lower with a weighted average of 89.80 on a carcass basis, the West was down 2.41 at 89.69, and the East is .56 lower at 89.12. Missouri direct base carcass meat price is steady to 1.00 lower from 86.00 to 88.00. Terminal hogs closed steady from 61.00 to 70 on a live basis.
DTN’s John Harrington says, the glaring fact that actual hog slaughter since Labor Day has trailed 2012 by nearly 8% suggests that new government numbers are just plumb wrong. Unless chain speed suddenly explodes and starts tracking at levels near even with last year, producers, packers, and traders will quickly throw the September report in the garbage.
Monday’s hog kill was estimated at 432,000 head, 13,000 less than last week and down 5,000 head from last year.
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