Monday's Closing Grain and Livestock Futures
May corn closed at $5.02, up 10 cents
May soybeans closed at $14.64, up 27 and 1/2 cents
May soybean meal closed at $479.30, up $10.90
May soybean oil closed at 40.42, down 6 points
May wheat closed at $6.97 and 1/4, up 1 and 3/4 cents
Apr. live cattle closed at $145.85, down 65 cents
Apr. lean hogs closed at $126.00, up 42 cents
May crude oil closed at $101.58, down 9 cents
May cotton closed at 93.52, down 22 points
Apr. Class III milk closed at $23.79, down 2 cents
Apr. gold closed at $1,283.40, down $10.40
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 16,457.66, up 134.60 points
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Market News Update:
Soybeans were mixed following USDA’s planting and stocks report. Old crop was up sharply on the tight near term supply and the solid overall demand. New crop was down on USDA’s expectation for record domestic acreage. Soybean meal was mixed, old crop up/new crop down, and bean oil was modestly lower. Soybeans are back to watching South America, while getting ready for USDA’s supply and demand numbers April 9.
Corn hit seven month highs on fund and commercial buying. Quarterly corn stocks were up 30% on the year, but smaller than expected by about 100 million bushels with strong feed demand a factor. Also, USDA’s planting intentions guess was below analysts’ estimates and there’s a chance for some early planting delays. Ethanol futures were higher.
The wheat complex was higher on technical buying and spillover from corn. Quarterly stocks were a little larger than expected due to comparatively slow demand. All wheat acreage is down 1%, with winter 3% lower and spring 4% higher, even with a chance of spring planting delays. Russia’s Ag Ministry reports spring planting is ahead of last year’s pace, thanks to better weather. Moscow adds grain exports since the start of the marketing year July 1, 2013 are 20.345 million tons, 44% ahead of last marketing year, with about 75% of the total wheat.
The new cattle showlists appear to be mixed, larger in the south and unchanged in the North. Early ideas of asking prices are around 153.00 to 154.00 in the South and 246.00 plus in the North. With the cost of cattle trending higher and beef cutouts struggling, packer margins appear adequate but narrowing. The ability for beef prices to stabilize over the next few days may determine the willingness of buyers to support the early April cash trade. The cattle slaughter is estimated at 114,000 head 1,000 less than last week, but 6,000 greater than last year.
Boxed beef cutout values closed lower on very light to light demand and offerings. Choice boxed beef was down .67 at 233.79, and select was 2.33 lower at 225.01.
Chicago Mercantile Exchange live cattle contracts settled 10 to 85 points lower. There were strong losses through the cattle futures following a combination of sharp losses in lean hog futures and pressure in the boxed beef values. Corn futures reacted to the lighter than expected prospective plantings and higher than expected current stocks. This also led to a lack of support in live cattle futures following a strong rally in corn futures prices. April settled .65 lower at 145.85 and June was down .85 at 137.50.
Feeder cattle ended the session 125 to 165 in the red. Early support quickly developed in feeder cattle futures following the early pressure in the corn market. But that all changed following the morning prospective plantings report which drew strong buyer support back into the corn market. This pushed the feeder cattle contracts sharply lower with all remaining 2014 contracts holding triple digit losses. April settled 1.32 lower at 177.02, and May was down 1.65 at 177.85.
Feeder cattle receipts at the Joplin Regional Stockyards on Monday totaled 6,000 head. Compared to last week, steer calves weighing less than 500 pounds and heifer calves less than 450 pounds were steady, steers 500 to 650 pounds and heifers 450 to 550 pounds were steady to 4.00 higher heavier weights steady. Demand good, supply moderate. Feeder steers medium and large 1 weighing 500 to 600 pounds traded from 201.00 to 228.00 per hundredweight. 5 to 6 weight heifers brought 183.00 to 198.00.
Lean hog contracts settled mostly lower with only the spot April contract higher. Lean hog futures started the week as bearish as possible with May through August contracts hitting limit down moves after the hogs and pigs report was viewed as bearish. But the initial pressure eased with front month April contracts regaining momentum and posting light gains. April was up .42 at 124.15, and June was down 2.40 at 127.17.
There was slow hog market activity with light to moderate demand on Monday. Barrows and gilts in the Iowa/Minnesota direct trade closed .91 lower at 128.00 weighted average on a carcass basis, the West was down .87 with an average of 127.58, and Eastern hogs at 123.78 were down 1.02. Missouri direct base carcass meat price was 2.00 to 3.00 higher from 120.00 to 121.00. Terminal hogs closed 1.00 to 4.00 higher live from 84.00 to 96.00 live with an extreme top in Iowa of 101.00.
The pork carcass cutout value FOB plant was up 1.26 at 132.58.
Given the fact the actual hog slaughter over the past three weeks or so has exceeded the cuts suggested by the new weight breakdown of market hogs released on Friday, there may be reasons to think USDA has understated the negative impact of PED death loss.
The Monday hog kill was estimated at 401,000 head, 9,000 less than last week, but 9,000 more than last year.
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