By Robert Burns, John Nielsen-Gammon
Many parts of Texas continued to get wintry precipitation, but from a moisture standpoint the winter has generally been drier than normal, according to State Climatologist Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon. (Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service photo by Robert Burns)
State Climatologist Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon said there’s a chance that an El Niño might develop later this year, but even if it does, its effects will not be in time to offset another dry, hot summer.
“Most of the forecast models are pointing in a positive direction for an El Niño. It’s still way too early to say, but there’s a potential for it,” said Nielsen-Gammon, College Station.
But even if with a strong El Niño — which usually brings more moisture to parts of the Southwest and Midwest—it’s effects would not be felt until this fall, he said.
As for this summer, there’s been a trend for hotter summers in the last several years, and that’s likely to continue.
“That’s not good for drought conditions, because that means more evaporation and more water demand,” Nielsen-Gammon said.
The recent wet fall has been followed by a fairly dry December and an especially dry January, he noted.
“The thing about the dry winter is that we’ve had some fall moisture issues already,” he said.
“Depending upon how much rain we get in the spring, that basically determines how rapidly things dry out in the summertime. Even with a normal rainfall, summer is a time in just about all areas of the state when we’re water stressed because evapotranspiration is so high. So we’re going to hit the summertime dry conditions earlier than normal, unless we make up this winter moisture deficit in the next couple of months.”
And making up that winter deficit in February and March seems unlikely at this time, he said.
“We still don’t have a good jet-stream pattern to bring us plentiful moisture, and there’s no sign of it developing.”
AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:
Central: The region had extremely cold weather with freezing rain and drizzle. Temperatures fluctuated from the mid-60s to teens. Oats and wheat went dormant in response to the cold weather. Pecan producers finished harvesting, but many had to store pecans that were not sold early because of low prices. Livestock were in good condition with forage supplies holding despite a lot of hay being fed because of many days of weather at or below freezing. Stock water tanks and rivers were full. Because of an improved moisture profile, producers were looking forward to greener and more productive pastures this spring.
Coastal Bend: Cool weather persisted across most of the area, with some counties having well-below-freezing temperatures at night, warming into the mid-40s during the day. Light rain and mist were reported along with some sleet, but there was not enough precipitation to make a difference in soil moisture conditions — just enough to postpone planting. Cattle continued to need supplemental feed and hay.
East: Cold weather halted winter forage growth. Many areas received freezing rain and sleet. Producers were feeding hay and supplements. Hay supplies were becoming short in some counties. Producers marketed feeder calves. Beef cattle remained in good condition, though there were reports of cattle lice. Weather and soil conditions permitting, truck farmers worked seedbeds for planting early in the spring. Orchard owners were pruning fruit trees. Demand for firewood was up. Feral hog damage continued to be a problem for many landowners.
Far West: The area had extremely cold temperatures, with highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits. With no precipitation and high winds, pastures were dry. Livestock were in good condition with continued supplemental feeding and minerals. Calving continued.
North: After a cold and wet week, topsoil moisture across the region ranged from short to adequate. About 0.5 to 1 inch of rain was reported across the counties. A few counties even reported a little snow. Most wheat, small grains and winter pastures needed rain. A few producers were able to apply fertilizer, but more rain was needed to soak it in. Livestock producers continued supplemental feeding of cattle. Franklin County reported spring calves were starting to arrive. Some areas reported livestock stressed due to the cold and windy weather. Titus County reported problems with coyotes and hogs.
Panhandle: The region had extremely low temperatures and high winds, with from a trace of snow to as much as 5 inches or more in some areas. Lipscomb County received 8 inches of snow. The subzero temperatures and wind chill factors depleted soil moisture and halted farming activities. Deaf Smith County producers were putting out fertilizer in preparation for spring planting. Some liquid fertilizer was being applied to irrigated wheat fields after grazing. Stocker cattle numbers remained low due to the lack of wheat for grazing and very scant native pasture forages. Ranchers were very busy putting out feed and busting ice. Unfortunately, some cow/calf herds were calving in the subzero weather, with Dallam and Hartley counties reporting that ranchers were warming calves in pickups and barns.
Rolling Plains: There were reports of up to 10 inches of snow across parts of the region, which brought much-needed moisture. Along with the snow came sub-freezing temperatures, with lows in the single digits. Wheat remained in poor condition, but was expected the snowmelt will improve the upper soil moisture profile. Livestock remained in fair condition with continued supplemental feeding. Some producers were breaking ice daily, while others continued to haul water to cattle due to the drought. Runoff water was needed for lakes and ponds.
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