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USDA: Livestock Poultry Outlook

The estimate for first-quarter 2013 broiler meat production was lowered slightly to 9.16 billion pounds, less than 1 percent higher than in first-quarter 2012. The revision was chiefly due to a slightly smaller than expected number of birds slaughtered in both January and February and also due to the fact that first-quarter 2013 had 1 less slaughter day than first-quarter 2012. Broiler meat production in January was up by 5.7 percent to 3.3 billion pounds, but production fell to 2.9 billion pounds in February, down 2.6 percent from a year earlier. The reduction in broiler meat production would have been even larger, as the number of birds slaughtered in February fell by 3.6 percent, chiefly as a result of 1 less slaughter day than in February the previous year. However, the decline in broiler meat production was eased by a 1.4 percent increase in average live weights to 5.91 pounds per bird. During the first 2 months of 2013, the number of broilers slaughtered was 1.38 billion, up 0.2 percent from the same period in 2012. Preliminary estimates pointtoward a decline in broiler meat production in March, with a lower number of birds slaughtered and only slightly higher average live weights. The number of birds slaughtered is expected to be lower because March 2013 had 1 less slaughter day than the previous March.

With a strong increase in broiler meat production during fourth-quarter 2012 and an expected small increase in first-quarter 2013, broiler stock levels have grown compared with a year earlier. At the end of February, cold storage holdings were 615 million pounds, up 8 percent from the previous year. Stock levels at the end of February were lower in a number of the dark meat broiler categories, which include drumsticks (down 15 percent), thighs (down 20 percent), and thigh meat (down 15 percent). However, stocks of leg quarters and legs were both higher than a year earlier. Also, some stock changes seem to have had no impact on prices, while other stock changes seem to have had a definite impact. One example is cold storage holdings of whole broilers, which totaled 16 million pounds at the end of February, 17 percent higher than the previous year, while wholesale prices rose. On the other hand, stocks of wings jumped to 63 million pounds (up 86 percent), and prices began falling in mid-February and continued to decline in March. With a small increase in the production forecast for first-quarter 2013, the ending stocks forecast was also increased, by 20 million pounds to 595 million, a gain of 9 percent from a year earlier. The outlook for continued growth in broiler production in the second half of 2013 was also the chief cause of an increase in the ending stocks forecast for 2013 to 635 million pounds, but this is still 2 percent lower than at the end of 2012 as competitive prices for broiler products are expected to expand domestic consumption.

Weekly estimates of broiler eggs in incubators and chick placements in the NASS Broiler Hatchery Report are continuing to point toward only small gains in the number of broilers produced for slaughter compared with a year earlier. Over the past 5 weeks (March 9 to April 6), the number of eggs placed in incubators in the 19 reporting States averaged 200 million, 1 percent higher than during the same period the previous year. During this same period, the number of chicks placed for growout averaged only 0.2 percent higher than in the previous year. Chicks placed for growout in late March and early April will likely be ready for slaughter in midMay, or about half way through the second quarter of 2013.

In first-quarter 2013, the national wholesale price for whole birds averaged $1.04 per pound, up 18 percent from the previous year. The first- quarter price was higher than the previous year, but after peaking in the second quarter, prices for whole birds are expected to decline later in the year as production increases. Wholesale first- quarter prices in the Northeast region were higher for most broiler product categories compared with the previous year. The exceptions were prices for leg quarters and drumsticks. Prices for leg quarters averaged $0.51 per pound in the first quarter, 4 percent lower than the previous year, while prices for drumsticks, at $0.62 per pound, were down 12 percent. The first-quarter price for boneless/skinless breast meat averaged $1.41 per pound, up 10 percent from the previous year, and the average price for boneless/skinless thighs was $1.31 per pound, up 2 percent. Prices for broiler products are expected to remain steady or weaken slightly over the next several months, due mainly to the relatively high levels of cold storage holdings at the end of the first quarter. During the rest of 2013, some of the factors expected to influence the broiler industry are, first, that broiler integrators are evaluating the prospects of normal corn and soybean crops this year, which would be expected to result in declining feed costs. Second, some improvement is expected in unemployment rates and real disposable income, which—along with declining prices—would boost meat consumption. Third, the demand for U.S. poultry exports continues to be relatively strong.

Turkey Production Forecast Higher in First-Quarter 2013
U.S. turkey meat production is estimated at 1.46 billion pounds in first-quarter 2013, 10 million pounds above the previous estimate and almost 1 percent higher than the previous year. During the first 2 months of 2013, turkey meat production totaled 986 million pounds, up 5 percent from the same period in 2012. During January and February, the number of turkeys slaughtered rose by 2 percent compared with the same period the previous year, and average live bird weights were 31.4 pounds, 2 percent higher than during January and February of 2012. Although the forecast for first-quarter 2013 was increased, the forecasts for turkey meat production in the second, third, and fourth quarters were all reduced slightly. The reduction is chiefly based on reductions in turkey poult placements in recent months and falling prices for many turkey products. The revised total for 2013 is now 6.1 billion pounds, an increase of 2 percent from a year earlier. At the end of February 2013, turkey products in cold storage totaled 399 million pounds, 14 percent higher than the previous year. On a year-over-year basis, turkey stocks have been almost continually higher since the middle of 2011. At the end of February, cold storage holdings for most turkey product categories were higher, with the exception of cold storage holdings of legs and “other” products. Cold storage holdings of whole birds at the end of February were 22 percent higher than
a year earlier. There was a wide difference in cold storage holdings for whole hens and toms; cold storage holdings of whole hens totaled 89 million pounds, 9 percent higher than a year earlier, while stock levels for whole toms were 83 million pounds at the end of February, 39 percent above a year earlier. Stocks of whole birds, at 172 million pounds, made up 43 percent of total turkey stocks. Stocks of mechanically deboned turkey meat had the largest percentage increase, rising to 13 million pounds, 25 percent increase above the previous year. Cold storage holdingsfor turkeys are expected to remain higher than year-earlier quantities throughout 2013, even with relatively strong exports and lower prices that would be expected to increase domestic usage.

During first-quarter 2013, prices for whole hen turkeys averaged $0.96 per pound, 5 percent lower than in first-quarter 2012. With higher production throughout 2012 and year-over-year increases in cold storage holdings, there has been downward pressure on prices for whole birds and turkey parts. Prices for whole frozen hens are expected to remain below year-earlier levels for the remainder of 2013 as high levels of product in cold storage are expected to depress prices. Over the first 2months of 2013, prices for almost all turkey prices were down considerably from the previous year. Prices for boneless/skinless breast meat averaged $1.62 per pound, down 33 percent from the same period in 2012. Prices were also down for wings, bone-in breasts, mechanically deboned meat, and drumsticks. The average national price for frozen whole hens in second- quarter 2013 is forecast at $0.98-
$1.02 per pound, around 7 cents lower than the previous year, with yearly prices forecast at $0.99-$1.03 per pound, down slightly from $1.06 per pound in 2012.

Table and Hatching Egg Production Higher in 2013
In February, the number of hens in the table egg flock was reported at 290 million, 2 percent higher than the previous year. Even with this increase in hen numbers, table egg production declined to 519 million dozen in February, a small decrease from a year earlier when February had an additional day due to Leap Year. Table egg production is expected to be higher in March, and production for first-quarter 2013 is estimated at 1.7 billion dozen, about 1 percent higher than in first-quarter 2012. Table egg production is expected to be about 1 percent higher than the previous year throughout 2013 and to total 6.8 billion dozen. With broiler meat production forecast higher than the previous year throughout
2013, hatching egg production is also forecast higher (1.1 billion dozen), or 2 percent above production in 2012. In February, the number of hens in the broiler hatching flock totaled 52 million, up 2 percent from February 2012. On a yearover-year basis, the number of hens in the broiler hatching flock has been higher for the last 3 months.

Eggs Prices 17 Percent Higher in First Quarter
The wholesale price for one dozen large eggs in the New York region averaged $1.27 in first-quarter 2013, 17 percent higher than in first-quarter 2012. With the Easter holiday in late March this year, egg prices began to strengthen seasonally early in March and began their seasonal decline at the end of March. Weekly prices in the New York region peaked in the mid $1.40’s per dozen in late March but by early April had declined by $0.30 per dozen. With the seasonal decline, prices in second-quarter 2013 are forecast at $1.08 - $1.12 per dozen, still around 10 percent higher than the previous year.

Source: USDA The estimate for first-quarter 2013 broiler meat production was lowered slightly to 9.16 billion pounds, less than 1 percent higher than in first-quarter 2012. The revision was chiefly due to a slightly smaller than expected number of birds slaughtered in both January and February and also due to the fact that first-quarter 2013 had 1 less slaughter day than first-quarter 2012. Broiler meat production in January was up by 5.7 percent to 3.3 billion pounds, but production fell to 2.9 billion pounds in February, down 2.6 percent from a year earlier. The reduction in broiler meat production would have been even larger, as the number of birds slaughtered in February fell by 3.6 percent, chiefly as a result of 1 less slaughter day than in February the previous year. However, the decline in broiler meat production was eased by a 1.4 percent increase in average live weights to 5.91 pounds per bird. During the first 2 months of 2013, the number of broilers slaughtered was 1.38 billion, up 0.2 percent from the same period in 2012. Preliminary estimates pointtoward a decline in broiler meat production in March, with a lower number of birds slaughtered and only slightly higher average live weights. The number of birds slaughtered is expected to be lower because March 2013 had 1 less slaughter day than the previous March.

With a strong increase in broiler meat production during fourth-quarter 2012 and an expected small increase in first-quarter 2013, broiler stock levels have grown compared with a year earlier. At the end of February, cold storage holdings were 615 million pounds, up 8 percent from the previous year. Stock levels at the end of February were lower in a number of the dark meat broiler categories, which include drumsticks (down 15 percent), thighs (down 20 percent), and thigh meat (down 15 percent). However, stocks of leg quarters and legs were both higher than a year earlier. Also, some stock changes seem to have had no impact on prices, while other stock changes seem to have had a definite impact. One example is cold storage holdings of whole broilers, which totaled 16 million pounds at the end of February, 17 percent higher than the previous year, while wholesale prices rose. On the other hand, stocks of wings jumped to 63 million pounds (up 86 percent), and prices began falling in mid-February and continued to decline in March. With a small increase in the production forecast for first-quarter 2013, the ending stocks forecast was also increased, by 20 million pounds to 595 million, a gain of 9 percent from a year earlier. The outlook for continued growth in broiler production in the second half of 2013 was also the chief cause of an increase in the ending stocks forecast for 2013 to 635 million pounds, but this is still 2 percent lower than at the end of 2012 as competitive prices for broiler products are expected to expand domestic consumption.

Weekly estimates of broiler eggs in incubators and chick placements in the NASS Broiler Hatchery Report are continuing to point toward only small gains in the number of broilers produced for slaughter compared with a year earlier. Over the past 5 weeks (March 9 to April 6), the number of eggs placed in incubators in the 19 reporting States averaged 200 million, 1 percent higher than during the same period the previous year. During this same period, the number of chicks placed for growout averaged only 0.2 percent higher than in the previous year. Chicks placed for growout in late March and early April will likely be ready for slaughter in midMay, or about half way through the second quarter of 2013.

In first-quarter 2013, the national wholesale price for whole birds averaged $1.04 per pound, up 18 percent from the previous year. The first- quarter price was higher than the previous year, but after peaking in the second quarter, prices for whole birds are expected to decline later in the year as production increases. Wholesale first- quarter prices in the Northeast region were higher for most broiler product categories compared with the previous year. The exceptions were prices for leg quarters and drumsticks. Prices for leg quarters averaged $0.51 per pound in the first quarter, 4 percent lower than the previous year, while prices for drumsticks, at $0.62 per pound, were down 12 percent. The first-quarter price for boneless/skinless breast meat averaged $1.41 per pound, up 10 percent from the previous year, and the average price for boneless/skinless thighs was $1.31 per pound, up 2 percent. Prices for broiler products are expected to remain steady or weaken slightly over the next several months, due mainly to the relatively high levels of cold storage holdings at the end of the first quarter. During the rest of 2013, some of the factors expected to influence the broiler industry are, first, that broiler integrators are evaluating the prospects of normal corn and soybean crops this year, which would be expected to result in declining feed costs. Second, some improvement is expected in unemployment rates and real disposable income, which—along with declining prices—would boost meat consumption. Third, the demand for U.S. poultry exports continues to be relatively strong.

Turkey Production Forecast Higher in First-Quarter 2013
U.S. turkey meat production is estimated at 1.46 billion pounds in first-quarter 2013, 10 million pounds above the previous estimate and almost 1 percent higher than the previous year. During the first 2 months of 2013, turkey meat production totaled 986 million pounds, up 5 percent from the same period in 2012. During January and February, the number of turkeys slaughtered rose by 2 percent compared with the same period the previous year, and average live bird weights were 31.4 pounds, 2 percent higher than during January and February of 2012. Although the forecast for first-quarter 2013 was increased, the forecasts for turkey meat production in the second, third, and fourth quarters were all reduced slightly. The reduction is chiefly based on reductions in turkey poult placements in recent months and falling prices for many turkey products. The revised total for 2013 is now 6.1 billion pounds, an increase of 2 percent from a year earlier. At the end of February 2013, turkey products in cold storage totaled 399 million pounds, 14 percent higher than the previous year. On a year-over-year basis, turkey stocks have been almost continually higher since the middle of 2011. At the end of February, cold storage holdings for most turkey product categories were higher, with the exception of cold storage holdings of legs and “other” products. Cold storage holdings of whole birds at the end of February were 22 percent higher than
a year earlier. There was a wide difference in cold storage holdings for whole hens and toms; cold storage holdings of whole hens totaled 89 million pounds, 9 percent higher than a year earlier, while stock levels for whole toms were 83 million pounds at the end of February, 39 percent above a year earlier. Stocks of whole birds, at 172 million pounds, made up 43 percent of total turkey stocks. Stocks of mechanically deboned turkey meat had the largest percentage increase, rising to 13 million pounds, 25 percent increase above the previous year. Cold storage holdingsfor turkeys are expected to remain higher than year-earlier quantities throughout 2013, even with relatively strong exports and lower prices that would be expected to increase domestic usage.

During first-quarter 2013, prices for whole hen turkeys averaged $0.96 per pound, 5 percent lower than in first-quarter 2012. With higher production throughout 2012 and year-over-year increases in cold storage holdings, there has been downward pressure on prices for whole birds and turkey parts. Prices for whole frozen hens are expected to remain below year-earlier levels for the remainder of 2013 as high levels of product in cold storage are expected to depress prices. Over the first 2months of 2013, prices for almost all turkey prices were down considerably from the previous year. Prices for boneless/skinless breast meat averaged $1.62 per pound, down 33 percent from the same period in 2012. Prices were also down for wings, bone-in breasts, mechanically deboned meat, and drumsticks. The average national price for frozen whole hens in second- quarter 2013 is forecast at $0.98-
$1.02 per pound, around 7 cents lower than the previous year, with yearly prices forecast at $0.99-$1.03 per pound, down slightly from $1.06 per pound in 2012.

Table and Hatching Egg Production Higher in 2013
In February, the number of hens in the table egg flock was reported at 290 million, 2 percent higher than the previous year. Even with this increase in hen numbers, table egg production declined to 519 million dozen in February, a small decrease from a year earlier when February had an additional day due to Leap Year. Table egg production is expected to be higher in March, and production for first-quarter 2013 is estimated at 1.7 billion dozen, about 1 percent higher than in first-quarter 2012. Table egg production is expected to be about 1 percent higher than the previous year throughout 2013 and to total 6.8 billion dozen. With broiler meat production forecast higher than the previous year throughout
2013, hatching egg production is also forecast higher (1.1 billion dozen), or 2 percent above production in 2012. In February, the number of hens in the broiler hatching flock totaled 52 million, up 2 percent from February 2012. On a yearover-year basis, the number of hens in the broiler hatching flock has been higher for the last 3 months.

Eggs Prices 17 Percent Higher in First Quarter
The wholesale price for one dozen large eggs in the New York region averaged $1.27 in first-quarter 2013, 17 percent higher than in first-quarter 2012. With the Easter holiday in late March this year, egg prices began to strengthen seasonally early in March and began their seasonal decline at the end of March. Weekly prices in the New York region peaked in the mid $1.40’s per dozen in late March but by early April had declined by $0.30 per dozen. With the seasonal decline, prices in second-quarter 2013 are forecast at $1.08 - $1.12 per dozen, still around 10 percent higher than the previous year.

Source: USDA The estimate for first-quarter 2013 broiler meat production was lowered slightly to 9.16 billion pounds, less than 1 percent higher than in first-quarter 2012. The revision was chiefly due to a slightly smaller than expected number of birds slaughtered in both January and February and also due to the fact that first-quarter 2013 had 1 less slaughter day than first-quarter 2012. Broiler meat production in January was up by 5.7 percent to 3.3 billion pounds, but production fell to 2.9 billion pounds in February, down 2.6 percent from a year earlier. The reduction in broiler meat production would have been even larger, as the number of birds slaughtered in February fell by 3.6 percent, chiefly as a result of 1 less slaughter day than in February the previous year. However, the decline in broiler meat production was eased by a 1.4 percent increase in average live weights to 5.91 pounds per bird. During the first 2 months of 2013, the number of broilers slaughtered was 1.38 billion, up 0.2 percent from the same period in 2012. Preliminary estimates pointtoward a decline in broiler meat production in March, with a lower number of birds slaughtered and only slightly higher average live weights. The number of birds slaughtered is expected to be lower because March 2013 had 1 less slaughter day than the previous March.

With a strong increase in broiler meat production during fourth-quarter 2012 and an expected small increase in first-quarter 2013, broiler stock levels have grown compared with a year earlier. At the end of February, cold storage holdings were 615 million pounds, up 8 percent from the previous year. Stock levels at the end of February were lower in a number of the dark meat broiler categories, which include drumsticks (down 15 percent), thighs (down 20 percent), and thigh meat (down 15 percent). However, stocks of leg quarters and legs were both higher than a year earlier. Also, some stock changes seem to have had no impact on prices, while other stock changes seem to have had a definite impact. One example is cold storage holdings of whole broilers, which totaled 16 million pounds at the end of February, 17 percent higher than the previous year, while wholesale prices rose. On the other hand, stocks of wings jumped to 63 million pounds (up 86 percent), and prices began falling in mid-February and continued to decline in March. With a small increase in the production forecast for first-quarter 2013, the ending stocks forecast was also increased, by 20 million pounds to 595 million, a gain of 9 percent from a year earlier. The outlook for continued growth in broiler production in the second half of 2013 was also the chief cause of an increase in the ending stocks forecast for 2013 to 635 million pounds, but this is still 2 percent lower than at the end of 2012 as competitive prices for broiler products are expected to expand domestic consumption.

Weekly estimates of broiler eggs in incubators and chick placements in the NASS Broiler Hatchery Report are continuing to point toward only small gains in the number of broilers produced for slaughter compared with a year earlier. Over the past 5 weeks (March 9 to April 6), the number of eggs placed in incubators in the 19 reporting States averaged 200 million, 1 percent higher than during the same period the previous year. During this same period, the number of chicks placed for growout averaged only 0.2 percent higher than in the previous year. Chicks placed for growout in late March and early April will likely be ready for slaughter in midMay, or about half way through the second quarter of 2013.

In first-quarter 2013, the national wholesale price for whole birds averaged $1.04 per pound, up 18 percent from the previous year. The first- quarter price was higher than the previous year, but after peaking in the second quarter, prices for whole birds are expected to decline later in the year as production increases. Wholesale first- quarter prices in the Northeast region were higher for most broiler product categories compared with the previous year. The exceptions were prices for leg quarters and drumsticks. Prices for leg quarters averaged $0.51 per pound in the first quarter, 4 percent lower than the previous year, while prices for drumsticks, at $0.62 per pound, were down 12 percent. The first-quarter price for boneless/skinless breast meat averaged $1.41 per pound, up 10 percent from the previous year, and the average price for boneless/skinless thighs was $1.31 per pound, up 2 percent. Prices for broiler products are expected to remain steady or weaken slightly over the next several months, due mainly to the relatively high levels of cold storage holdings at the end of the first quarter. During the rest of 2013, some of the factors expected to influence the broiler industry are, first, that broiler integrators are evaluating the prospects of normal corn and soybean crops this year, which would be expected to result in declining feed costs. Second, some improvement is expected in unemployment rates and real disposable income, which—along with declining prices—would boost meat consumption. Third, the demand for U.S. poultry exports continues to be relatively strong.

Turkey Production Forecast Higher in First-Quarter 2013
U.S. turkey meat production is estimated at 1.46 billion pounds in first-quarter 2013, 10 million pounds above the previous estimate and almost 1 percent higher than the previous year. During the first 2 months of 2013, turkey meat production totaled 986 million pounds, up 5 percent from the same period in 2012. During January and February, the number of turkeys slaughtered rose by 2 percent compared with the same period the previous year, and average live bird weights were 31.4 pounds, 2 percent higher than during January and February of 2012. Although the forecast for first-quarter 2013 was increased, the forecasts for turkey meat production in the second, third, and fourth quarters were all reduced slightly. The reduction is chiefly based on reductions in turkey poult placements in recent months and falling prices for many turkey products. The revised total for 2013 is now 6.1 billion pounds, an increase of 2 percent from a year earlier. At the end of February 2013, turkey products in cold storage totaled 399 million pounds, 14 percent higher than the previous year. On a year-over-year basis, turkey stocks have been almost continually higher since the middle of 2011. At the end of February, cold storage holdings for most turkey product categories were higher, with the exception of cold storage holdings of legs and “other” products. Cold storage holdings of whole birds at the end of February were 22 percent higher than
a year earlier. There was a wide difference in cold storage holdings for whole hens and toms; cold storage holdings of whole hens totaled 89 million pounds, 9 percent higher than a year earlier, while stock levels for whole toms were 83 million pounds at the end of February, 39 percent above a year earlier. Stocks of whole birds, at 172 million pounds, made up 43 percent of total turkey stocks. Stocks of mechanically deboned turkey meat had the largest percentage increase, rising to 13 million pounds, 25 percent increase above the previous year. Cold storage holdingsfor turkeys are expected to remain higher than year-earlier quantities throughout 2013, even with relatively strong exports and lower prices that would be expected to increase domestic usage.

During first-quarter 2013, prices for whole hen turkeys averaged $0.96 per pound, 5 percent lower than in first-quarter 2012. With higher production throughout 2012 and year-over-year increases in cold storage holdings, there has been downward pressure on prices for whole birds and turkey parts. Prices for whole frozen hens are expected to remain below year-earlier levels for the remainder of 2013 as high levels of product in cold storage are expected to depress prices. Over the first 2months of 2013, prices for almost all turkey prices were down considerably from the previous year. Prices for boneless/skinless breast meat averaged $1.62 per pound, down 33 percent from the same period in 2012. Prices were also down for wings, bone-in breasts, mechanically deboned meat, and drumsticks. The average national price for frozen whole hens in second- quarter 2013 is forecast at $0.98-
$1.02 per pound, around 7 cents lower than the previous year, with yearly prices forecast at $0.99-$1.03 per pound, down slightly from $1.06 per pound in 2012.

Table and Hatching Egg Production Higher in 2013
In February, the number of hens in the table egg flock was reported at 290 million, 2 percent higher than the previous year. Even with this increase in hen numbers, table egg production declined to 519 million dozen in February, a small decrease from a year earlier when February had an additional day due to Leap Year. Table egg production is expected to be higher in March, and production for first-quarter 2013 is estimated at 1.7 billion dozen, about 1 percent higher than in first-quarter 2012. Table egg production is expected to be about 1 percent higher than the previous year throughout 2013 and to total 6.8 billion dozen. With broiler meat production forecast higher than the previous year throughout
2013, hatching egg production is also forecast higher (1.1 billion dozen), or 2 percent above production in 2012. In February, the number of hens in the broiler hatching flock totaled 52 million, up 2 percent from February 2012. On a yearover-year basis, the number of hens in the broiler hatching flock has been higher for the last 3 months.

Eggs Prices 17 Percent Higher in First Quarter
The wholesale price for one dozen large eggs in the New York region averaged $1.27 in first-quarter 2013, 17 percent higher than in first-quarter 2012. With the Easter holiday in late March this year, egg prices began to strengthen seasonally early in March and began their seasonal decline at the end of March. Weekly prices in the New York region peaked in the mid $1.40’s per dozen in late March but by early April had declined by $0.30 per dozen. With the seasonal decline, prices in second-quarter 2013 are forecast at $1.08 - $1.12 per dozen, still around 10 percent higher than the previous year.

Source: USDA


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