LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2013 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month reflecting higher forecast beef, pork, broiler, and turkey production. Beef production is raised based mostly on heavier carcass weights. The beef production forecast is also raised as cow slaughter in the first quarter is expected to be relatively high. Pork production is raised as carcass weights are expected to reflect more moderate feed costs. Broiler hatchery data pointed to continued expansion of bird numbers and weights at slaughter have been increasing. Thus, the broiler production forecast is raised from last month. Turkey production is raised slightly on hatchery data. Egg production is raised on higher producer prices and lower forecast feed prices. Estimates of 2012 meat and egg production are adjusted to reflect December data.
The beef export forecast for 2013 is unchanged as trade restrictions by Russia are offset by gains to Japan and other markets. Pork exports are lowered on trade restrictions imposed by Russia although there is expected to be some offset in higher exports to other markets. Broiler and turkey export forecasts are raised from last month on stronger demand from a number of markets. Import forecasts are unchanged from January. Beef and pork export estimates for 2012 are lowered due to slower-than-expected shipments in November. Poultry is raised based on larger-than-expected November shipments.
Cattle, hog, and turkey prices for 2013 are unchanged from last month. Broiler and egg prices are raised on expected demand strength in 2013. The milk production forecast for 2013 is raised. Milk cow numbers are raised as USDA’s Cattle report indicated that the number of cows on January 1 was about unchanged from 2012. Milk per cow forecasts are raised as last quarter-2012 estimates were higher than expected and lower forecast feed costs support higher milk yields in 2013. Fat-basis trade estimates for 2013 are unchanged. The skim-solids export estimate for 2013 is raised largely on expectations of stronger nonfat dry milk (NDM) shipments, but the import forecast is unchanged. Milk production estimates for 2012 are raised, reflecting end-of-year production data. Dairy trade estimates for 2012 reflect the pace of trade through November.
Cheese prices are unchanged from last month, but the price range is narrowed. NDM and whey prices are raised reflecting stronger demand, but the butter price is lowered. Despite a higher whey price, the forecast Class III price is unchanged although the range is tightened. Lower butter prices are more than offset by higher NDM prices resulting in a slightly higher forecast Class IV price. The range of all milk price for 2013 is narrowed to $18.90 to $19.70
per cwt.
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Source: USDA