Special Note
This report contains estimates and forecasts that were originally scheduled for release in the October report. This includes updated planted and harvested acreage for dry edible beans, canola, corn, sorghum, soybeans and sunflowers. Also included are revised peanut and sunflower acreage, yield and production for 2012, as well as indicated 2013/2014 production forecasts for citrus fruits as of November 1.
Due to the cancellation of the 2013 October Crop Production report, there are no October 1 yield forecasts to include in this report.
Small Grain Update
Survey respondents who reported barley, oats, Durum wheat, or other spring wheat acreage as not yet harvested in Montana and North Dakota during the surveys conducted in preparation for the Small Grains 2013 Summary, released September 30, 2013, were re-contacted in late October to determine how many of those acres were actually harvested and record the actual production from those acres. Based on this updated information, several changes were made to the estimates published in the Small Grains 2013 Summary. Because unharvested production is a component of on-farm stocks, changes were made to the September 1 on-farm stocks levels comparable with the production adjustments.
Corn Production Up 1 Percent from September Forecast
Soybean Production Up 3 Percent
Cotton Production Up 2 Percent
Orange Production Down 5 Percent from Last Season
Corn production is forecast at 14.0 billion bushels, up 1 percent from the previous forecast and up 30 percent from 2012. If realized, this will be a new record production for the United States. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 160.4 bushels per acre, up 5.1 bushels from the previous forecast and 37.0 bushels above the 2012 average. If realized, this will be the highest average yield since 2009. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 87.2 million acres, down 2 percent from the previous forecast and down slightly from 2012.
Soybean production is forecast at 3.26 billion bushels, up 3 percent from the previous forecast and up 7 percent from last year. If realized, production will be the third largest on record. Based on November 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 43.0 bushels per acre, up 1.8 bushels from the previous forecast and up 3.2 bushels from 2012. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at 75.7 million acres, down 1 percent from both the previous forecast and last year.
All cotton production is forecast at 13.1 million 480-pound bales, up 2 percent from the September forecast but down 24 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 808 pounds per harvested acre, up 79 pounds from last year. Upland cotton production is forecast at 12.5 million 480-pound bales, down 25 percent from 2012. Pima cotton production, forecast at 625,500 bales, was carried forward from the previous forecast.
The United States all orange forecast for the 2013-2014 season is 7.96 million tons, down 5 percent from the 2012-2013 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 125 million boxes (5.63 million tons), is down 6 percent from last season’s final utilization. Early, midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 58.0 million boxes (2.61 million tons), down 14 percent from last season. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 67.0 million boxes (3.02 million tons), is up 1 percent from last season’s final utilization. The early months of 2013 brought little precipitation and average temperatures to the citrus growing region. Significant rainfall returned in late spring and slowly eliminated drought
conditions by the first week in July. Seasonal temperatures coupled with above average precipitation continued throughout the summer months and kept citrus groves drought free through mid-October. California’s Navel orange crop is getting underway with growers expecting good quality fruit.
Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2013-2014 season is 1.60 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, up 1 percent from last season’s final yield of 1.59 gallons per box. Projected yield from the 2013-2014 Early-Midseason and Valencia varieties will be published in the January Crop Production report. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons.
Source: USDA