Farms.com Home   News

Weekly Crop Comments

Overview

Soybeans, corn, cotton, and wheat were up for the week. Economic and political uncertainty in Washington DC continues to influence financial and commodity markets. Corn harvest continues to move north, with initial reports of higher than expected yields in the Corn Belt leading many to believe the USDA will increase average yields on the October 11th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The October WASDE report should also provide some harvested acreage adjustments that reflect the FSA prevented planting numbers released this month. The September WASDE report showed estimated corn harvested acreage at 89.1 million acres, the FSA prevented planting acreage estimate was 84.4 million acres. Most likely the true number is somewhere in between the two. Combining the potential for acreage and yield adjustments in corn will make the October 11th WASDE report closely watched by commodity traders. Soybean harvest has commenced and initial yields are strong, however this was expected, late planted soybeans still represent a significant unknown when estimating average yields. Some expect the USDA to adjust soybean yields upward in the October WASDE report. November futures prices remain above $13. Pricing soybeans at or above the $13 mark should still be considered by producers as this represents a significant increase from the beginning of August when soybeans were in the $11.60/bu range. Cotton prices increased to near 87 cents/lb this week. Given the last 7-8 month trading range pricing cotton at or above this level is strongly encouraged as the longer term outlook in general is still pessimistic. Wheat markets have received some support on news that Argentina may have frost damage in some of its southern areas and quality concerns in Brazilian and Chinese wheat could result in additional U.S. exports. The USDA will release its quarterly stocks report on Monday, combined with the political uncertainty in Washington this could lead to some major market movements on Monday.

USD, Crude and Dow

Corn

Weekly export net sales were above expectations with net sales of 25.2 million bushels for the 2013/14 marketing year. Exports for the week were 18.9 million bushels. Last week ethanol production decreased 6,000 barrels per day to 832,000 barrels per day. September 20th ending ethanol stocks decreased 500,000 barrels from the previous week to 15.6 million barrels. Dec/Mar and Dec/Sep futures spreads were 12 cents and 30 cents.

Historical September Corn Futures Prices

Nearby and Harvest Corn Futures Prices

USDA crop progress report released September 23rd reported corn dented or beyond at 91% compared to 81% last week, 99% last year, and a 5-year average of 93%. Corn mature was reported at 40% compared to 22% last week, 86% last year, and a 5-year average of 55%. Corn harvested was 7% compared to 4% last week, 37% last year, and a 5-year average of 16%.  Corn condition was reported as 55% good to excellent compared to 53% last week and 24% last year; 16% poor to very poor compared to 18% last week and 51% last year. In Tennessee, corn mature was 77% (5-year average 91%); corn silage harvested was 90% this week (5-year average 95%); corn harvest was 39% (5-year average 60%); and corn condition was 87% good to excellent and 2% poor to very poor. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.55 December Put Option costing 17 cents establishing a $4.38 futures floor.

Soybeans

Weekly export net sales exceeded expectations with net sales of 103.5 million bushels for 2013/14. Exports for the week were 16.3 million bushels. Nov/Jan and Nov/Nov futures spreads were 2 cents and -145 cents.

Historical November Soybean Futures Prices

Nearby and Harvest Soybean Futures Prices

Nationally, soybeans dropping leaves were 47% compared to 26% last week, 71% last year, and a 5-year average of 56%. Soybeans harvested were 3% last week, 21% last year, and a 5-year average of 9%. Soybean condition was reported as: 50% good to excellent the same as last week, compared to 35% last year; 17% poor to very poor compared to 18% last week and 34% last year. In Tennessee, soybeans dropping leaves was 26% (5-year average 56%), soybeans harvested was 3% (5-year average 7%), and crop condition was 80% good to excellent and 4% poor to very poor. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $13.20 November Put Option which would cost 31 cents and set a $12.89 futures floor.

Wheat

Weekly exports were within expectations with net sales of 22.8 million bushels for the 2013/14 marketing year. Exports were 20.9 million bushels. Dec/Mar and Dec/Jul futures spreads were 8 cents and 1 cent.

Historical July Wheat Futures Prices

Nearby and Fall Wheat Futures Prices

Nationally, spring wheat harvested was 93% compared to 90% last week, 100% last year, and a 5-year average of 93%. Winter wheat planting was reported at 23% compared to 12% last week, 23% last year and a 5-year average of 24%. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $6.90 July 2014 Put Option costing 57 cents and establishing a $6.33 futures floor.

Click here to see more...

Trending Video

Market Monitor

Video: Market Monitor

Kim Anderson, OSU Extension grain marketing specialist, covers crop prices and the latest stocks-to-use ratio measurements.