According to the price data available, the consumer demand for beef is down 2.3 percent and for pork, up 4.0 percent. We believe the actual consumer demand for both beef and pork is too high. We believe the average retail prices, as developed, is high relative to last year. The reason for this too high retail price on average is that USDA gives the same tonnage sold to special low prices as regular price. Therefore, the average retail price would be lower than reported by the USDA.
Both live fed cattle and live hog demand for January to September was down. Fed cattle demand down 8.5 percent and live hog demand down 3.6 percent. The reason for the lower live hog demand was due mostly to lower exports. The weaker live fed cattle demand than beef was due we believe to lower exports and a very weak hotel and restaurant trade. A very high percent of the beef is sold through the hotel and restaurant trade.
Total cow slaughter in recent weeks has been below a year earlier. Dairy cow slaughter for the past month or so has been a little below twelve months earlier and beef cow slaughter has be substantially below this period last year. For this year through the week ending October 17, total cow slaughter is 0.4 percent below twelve months earlier. Dairy cow slaughter for this period is up 11.8 percent but beef cow slaughter is down 9.1 percent from the same period in 2008.
The cow herd is expected to be down a little on January 1, 2010 from 2009.
Feeder steers steady following a lower opening, steer calves steady to $2.00 per cwt lower, instances $4.00 per cwt lower. Feeder heifers and heifer calves steady to $2.00 per cwt lower at Oklahoma City compared to last week.
The prices for medium and large frame Number One steers at Oklahoma City this week were: 400-500 pounds $106.50-$122.50 per cwt, 500-600 pounds $95.00-$108.25 per cwt, 600-700 pound calves $87.00-$93.85 per cwt, 600-700 pound yearlings $94.00-$102.00 per cwt, 700-800 pounds $90.00-$96.00 per cwt and 800-1,000 pounds $86.50-$94.00 per cwt.
Wholesale beef prices the Friday morning showed choice beef at $140.90 per cwt up $2.36 per cwt from a week earlier. Select beef at $135.64 per cwt up $5.24 per cwt from seven days earlier.
Live fed cattle price weighted average for the five-market area through Thursday at $86.97 per cwt up $2.38 per cwt from a week earlier. The weighted average negotiated price for the five-market area at $133.86 per cwt up $2.06 per cwt from the same period last week.
Slaughter this week under Federal Inspection was estimated at 651 thousand head up 1.7 percent from twelve months earlier.