Beef industry on the mend in 2010

The cattle industry should be on the mend in 2010, says Purdue University Extension economist Chris Hurt. Available supplies of beef will drop in the United States as production declines and exports increase. “Demand will be better at home as the U.S. economy continues to climb back from the depths of the recession,” he said.

The beef herd continues to drop slowly. Beef cow numbers on January 1 were estimated at 31.4 million head, down another 1 percent from last year. Over the past four years, the beef cow herd has dropped 5 percent. Dairy cow numbers were down 3 percent in 2009 as herd reductions resulted from large financial losses.

The number of heifers being retained by beef cow producers is down 2 percent, indicating that beef cow numbers will continue their slow decline through this year. On the other hand, milk cow replacement heifers were up 2 percent.

“Does this mean milk cow numbers will rise this year?” Hurt said. “Probably not, it is just a reflection that modern dairy production requires a higher replacement rate.”

During the past decade, the beef cow herd dropped by 2.1 million cows, or about 7 percent. Regionally, however, the location of beef cows was fairly stable during the last decade with some shift to the Southern Plains. The eastern Corn Belt, as an example, had 4 percent of the nation’s beef cows in both 2000 and 2010. The western Corn Belt has maintained about 10 percent of the beef cows, while the Southern Plains increased from 24 percent to 25 percent.

According to Hurt, beef production and the amount of beef available per person in the United States will decline in 2010. With smaller cow numbers, the 2010 calf crop is estimated to be down 1 to 2 percent and will be the foundation for smaller production.

USDA currently expects beef exports to rebound by 10 percent in 2010. If so, this will mean beef exports at 2.0 billion pounds will have reached 81 percent of the pre-BSE record set in 2003.

Hurt says trade improvements and population growth in the United States mean that per capita availability of beef will be down about 3 percent in 2010. In addition, pork availability per capita is expected to be down 4 percent. When chicken and turkey are included, there will be about 1 percent less meat and poultry per person in the United States.