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Broiler Production Higher in 2012

U.S. broiler meat production is expected to total 38.1 billion pounds in 2012, up 2   percent from 2011, with the expansion concentrated mostly in the second half of the  year. Gains in broiler meat production are expected to come from a combination of  more birds slaughtered and continuing increases in average bird weights at 
slaughter. Average bird weights, which rose rapidly at the end of 2010, have  continued higher through first-quarter 2011 and are expected to continue rising  through the rest of 2011 and into 2012. However, the year-to-year growth in bird  weights is expected to be considerably lower in 2012 than in 2011. One factor  needed for expanded broiler meat production in 2012 is the continued strengthening  of the general economy, including a gradual decline in the unemployment rate. A
second factor likely to influence any decision by integrators to expand is the corn  and soybean meal price forecast for 2011/2012. Feed prices are expected to  continue at very high levels.  Broiler meat production for first-quarter 2011 was reported at 9.3 billion pounds, up  6.4 percent from the same period in 2010. The number of broilers slaughtered rose 3 percent to 2.1 billion birds. Equally important to the increase was the 2.8-percent  gain in the average weight of broilers at slaughter (5.79 pounds). A substantial
portion of the broiler meat production increase in first-quarter 2011 is attributable to  the fact that first-quarter 2011 had an additional processing day compared with firstquarter  2010. 

The meat production estimate for second-quarter 2011was reduced by 45 million  pounds, as increases in weights in the later part of the first quarter were lower than  expected. The broiler meat production forecast was also reduced slightly, due in  part to the destruction of a number of growout barns by tornadoes in late April,  especially in Alabama. The tornadoes also created short-term disruptions at a  number of processing plants.  Over the last 5 weeks (April 9 through May 7), the number of chicks being placed  for growout has averaged 1.3 percent higher than in the same period in 2010. In  addition, the number of eggs placed in incubators has also been unchanged from the  same period in 2010. These estimates point toward an expected increase in meat  production in second-quarter 2011 that will come mostly from higher bird weights,  with only a small increase in the number of birds grown.   Broiler cold storage stocks totaled 660 million pounds at the end of first-quarter
2011, up 11 percent from a year earlier. Most of the increase is attributable to the  strong increase in broiler meat production in the first quarter. With broiler meat  production forecast to be higher in second-quarter 2011, stocks of broiler products  are expected to expand again through the middle of the year. Although lower than  first-quarter levels, in the second half of 2011, stocks are expected to be higher on a  year-over-year basis as lower exports are partially offset by lower production.

Economic Research Service, USDA  Since the end of 2010, cold storage holdings of broiler products have fallen by 15  percent. Most of the decline was due to smaller cold storage holdings of leg meat  products. Holdings of drumsticks, leg quarters, legs, thighs, and thigh meat were all  down at least 11 percent, and stocks of thighs and thigh meat were down 32 and 48  percent, respectively. These changes in stocks of leg meat products have been  reflected in upward price movements for these products at the wholesale level in  first-quarter 2011.  The 12-city wholesale price for whole broilers is expected to average 82 and 86  cents per pound for 2011, slightly higher than in 2010, but an increase of about 9  percent from 2009, when it averaged 77.6 cents per pound. Prices in 2011 are  expected to be lower than the previous year through the first half of the year, but to move higher in the second half. With expected higher production in 2012, prices  are expected to be stronger in the first half of the year, but moderate in the secondhalf,
leaving the annual price only slightly higher than a year earlier. Broiler exports in 2012 are expected to total 6.7 billion pounds, up 4.7 percent from  the 2011 forecast, and are expected to be spread relatively evenly throughout the  year. Broiler exports are expected to benefit from strong prices for beef and pork  products as consumers look for the lowest priced proteins. The expansion will  depend on economic growth rates in various areas of the world. With generally  expanding economic conditions, U.S. broiler exports are expected to increase to a  number of regions.  In first-quarter 2011, broiler exports totaled 1.53 billion pounds, 3 percent higher  than in the same period in 2010. Much of the growth was from higher shipments to  Asian countries such as Korea, Hong Kong, and Japan. While exports were higher  to many Asian countries, smaller shipments to both Russia and China partially  offset them. The lower shipments to Russia were expected, as over the last several  years Russia has been lowering the quota on the amount of imported poultry meat  allowed into the country as an incentive for domestic poultry production expansion.  Other Chicken  Other chicken meat production is expected to reach 515 million pounds in 2012, up  about 4 percent from the previous year. Production is expected to increase during much of the year before declining toward the end of the year.

Other chicken
Other chicken exports are expected to total 90 million pounds in 2012, only slightly higher than the previous year. Other chicken meat production in 2012 will be dependent on decisions by broiler integrators and egg producers to expand or contract production. With small increases expected in both production and exports, per capita other chicken disappearance is estimated at 1.4 pounds, up from 2011, but about the same as 2010.


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