An annual rite of spring happened this week in Kansas. Each year, participants in the “Hard Winter Wheat Evaluation Tour,” sponsored by the Wheat Quality Council, gather in Manhattan, KS, and spend the next two and a half days in small teams making random stops at 14, 15 or more fields in a full day along the same routes as in prior years. The scout teams measure yield potential, determine an average for the route and estimate a cumulative average for the day when all the scouts come together in the evening.
This year, three colleagues from U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) participated in the tour: Shawn Campbell, assistant director, West Coast Office; Ben Conner, assistant director of policy; and Amanda Spoo, communications specialist.
At the end of the tour, just a few hours before USW published this issue of "Wheat Letter," the scouts estimated average yield potential at 35.9 bushels per acre (bu/ac) or about 2.55 MT per hectare for the 2015/16 Kansas crop. While that estimate is more than the 33.2 bu/ac predicted by the 2014 tour, it is less than farmers and the industry had expected. Combining seeded area with per-acre yield potential, the total production potential estimate was 288.5 million bushels or about 7.85 MMT. Last year's total production estimate was 260.6 million bushels or about 7.10 MMT.
Following are reports from the 2015 tour. Twitter users can review Tweets and photos from the tour by searching #wheattour15.
Ironically, given the drought conditions that have dominated the region for several years, the event started as heavy rains fell, leaving wet, muddy conditions as the record 92 participants, traveling in 21 vehicles made their way across the state. On Day 1, May 5, Jordan Hildebrand with Kansas Wheat reported that participants stopped at 284 locations, an increase from 271 last year. She said the generally wet fields did not translate to better wheat conditions. This year's Day 1 estimated average yield of 34.3 bushels per acre (bu/ac), which is equivalent to about 2.32 MT per hectare, was slightly lower than last year's Day 1 average of 34.7 bu/ac, despite higher expectations. This is also the lowest Day 1 average since 2001 when scouts reported an average of 32.6 bu/ac. Last year's crop was ultimately the smallest Kansas harvest in 30 years totaling 246 million bushels (6.70 MMT). Many of the scouts reported seeing similar issues statewide, which included drought stress, stripe rust, winter kill — including some abandoned fields — and pest infestations.
Hildebrand reported on May 7 that the weather and wheat were also variable on Day 2 of the tour. Another stormy day started cloudy and wet, then turned sunny and warm, followed by building thunderstorms with at least one team seeing a tornado as the teams gathered in the Wichita area. From western Kansas where yield potential estimates were mostly less than 20 bu/ac to south central Kansas where the crop looked much better (although teams expressed concern about foliar diseases), Hildebrand said the scouts stopped at 305 fields.
“I have mixed feelings about the crop; it is so variable, which makes it hard to estimate with the calculation,” said Dr. Jim Shroyer, Kansas State University extension wheat specialist emeritus. “It is one of the toughest wheat tours that I’ve been on in a while.”
“Wichita Eagle” reporter Dan Voorhis filed a story noting the average yield was 34.7 bu/ac. “That is up from the 32.8 bu/ac estimate in 2014, when Kansas had the worst harvest in 25 years,” he wrote. “But it is still the second-worst average since 2007.”
Reuters reported that U.S. wheat futures surged 2.7 percent on May 6, bouncing back from near five-year lows on disappointing results from the tour and a crumbling U.S. dollar according to traders. An announcement the same day that Iraq had committed to purchase 50,000 MT of HRW added fuel to futures prices.
Day 3 of the tour is short and the teams battled rain to make 70 field observations. As expected, the estimated yield potential for wheat in eastern Kansas was significantly higher at 48.9 bu/ac. However, seeded wheat area in that part of the state is much lower than the central and western region.
“Many of the farmers on the tour said they are still optimistic in spite of the increased variability in conditions and disease this year,” Amanda Spoo reported. “Or they are at least content with what they will end up with, all things considered. Scott Van Allen who farms in Sumner County told me his wheat crop ‘was on the devil’s doorstep,’ but with recent rains he now expects average or a bit above average yields.”
Spoo said being on the tour walking fields, asking questions and exchanging thoughts about the crop was a fruitful experience.
“It is the people that make the wheat tour a unique, one-of-a-kind experience,” she said. “This year’s group was extremely diverse and the opportunity to see the challenges through their perspectives gives me some ownership in how this year’s crop turns out. I think the industry is in good hands, especially when you see firsthand how experienced scouts share that wealth of knowledge and sense of responsibility across sectors and down to each new generation of wheat tour participants. This annual event testifies that the dedication of the agriculture, food and environmental industries stretch far beyond this state. We may have been trekking through Kansas wheat fields, but the conversation always focused on the crop’s global impact.”
The Wheat Quality Council also sponsors a spring wheat tour in the Northern Plains in July. For more information, visit the Council’s Web site at http://www.wheatqualitycouncil.org.