In 2009, prices for whole hen turkeys followed a path different from their normal seasonal pattern. Prices had reached 82.7 cents per pound by July, but instead of the normal seasonal strengthening, prices fell in August and September. Prices hit 82.5 cents per pound in October and unlike other years, when prices tended to peak toward the beginning of November, prices for whole hens continued to gain strength in November (85 cents) and December (88 cents). These price movements resulted in a fourth-quarter price of 85.1 cents per pound, down 3 percent from the previous year, but 5 percent higher than in third-quarter 2009.
With turkey meat production expected to be lower in the first half of 2010 and turkey stocks at the end of 2009 expected to be down significantly from the previous year, whole hen prices are forecast to be higher throughout 2010. The average price for whole hens in the Eastern market in 2009 was 80 cents per pound,9 percent below the previous year. The average price for 2010 is forecast at 79 to 85 cents per pound, about 3 percent higher than in 2009.
Turkey production in November was 476 million pounds, 6 percent lower than in November 2008, even though there was 1 additional slaughter day in November 2009. The number of turkeys slaughtered in November was down 5.9 percent from the previous year and the average weight at slaughter fell slightly to 27.7 pounds.
Turkey meat production in December 2009 is also expected to be lower than the previous year, as turkey poult placements have been smaller than in 2008 during almost all of 2009. The estimate for turkey meat production in fourth-quarter 2009 was lowered by 50 million pounds to 1.43 billion, down 10 percent from the previous year. The turkey meat production estimate for 2010 is 5.68 billion pounds,little changed from 2009, with lower production in the first half of the year offset by higher production in the second half.
Ending stocks for all turkey products in fourth-quarter 2009 are expected to be 260 million pounds, down 136 million pounds or 34 percent from the same period in 2008. At the end of November, cold storage holdings for turkey totaled 228 million pounds, 37 percent lower than a year earlier. The decrease was due to smaller cold storage holdings for both whole birds and turkey parts. With lower turkey production expected in the first half of 2010 and lower beginning stocks, turkey cold storage levels in 2010 are expected to be lower than the previous year during the first three quarters.
Turkey exports in November totaled 49 million pounds, down 17 percent from November 2008’s very strong 59 million pounds. The bulk of the November decline was due to smaller shipments to Mexico, down 27 percent from the previous year. Turkey exports for fourth-quarter 2009 are expected to total 145 million pounds, a 20-percent decline from the same period in 2008. Turkey exports are expected to increase in 2010 to 545 million pounds, up 1.8 percent from 2009.
Although exports are expected to rise to a number of countries, much of the gain is expected to come from a resumption of larger shipments to Mexico, our major export market, as economic conditions gradually improve.
Source : USDA