USDA says corn yield estimates continue on their downward spiral, but the soybean crop is a bit larger than estimated in August. The September crop report was issued earlier today, projecting the national average corn yield at 148.1 bu. and total production at 12.497 bil. bu. Soybean production was projected at 3.09 bil. bu. based on an average yield of 41.8 bu. Details follow.
USDA’s September Crop Production Report detailed corn declining and soybeans increasing in production and yield.
From August to September, corn yield estimates dropped 10 bu. in IA, 9 bu. in IL, 6 bu. in NE, and 5 bu. in IN. Yields dropped in all Cornbelt states, except for ND where they held steady at 125. While the US average yield declined from the 153 bu. projection in August to 148.1 bu. in September, the average of 12 Cornbelt states dropped from 149.2 in August to 145.3 in September.
Aug Sept
IL 170 161
IN 150 145
IA 177 167
KS 110 105
MI 142 148
MN 166 165
MO 126 120
NE 166 160
ND 125 125
OH 158 153
SD 141 138
WI 159 157
As of September 4, fifty-two percent of the corn acreage was rated in good to excellent condition in the 18 major producing States, down 10 percentage points from one month earlier and down 17 percentage points compared to the same time last year. Condition ratings declined from last month throughout much of the Nation’s major corn producing regions due to above average temperatures and dry conditions during the month of August.
The September 1 corn objective yield data indicate the second highest number of ears per acre on record for the combined 10 objective yield States (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin), only behind the record year of 2009. Record high ear counts are forecast in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Wisconsin.
However, unusually hot weather and continued dry conditions in many locations continued to negatively impact the crop. By September 4, ninety-four percent of the corn crop was at or beyond the dough stage, 3 percentage points behind last year’s pace but 2 points ahead of the 5-year average. Denting had advanced to 71 percent, 13 percentage points behind last year but slightly ahead of the 5-year average. Eighteen percent of the acreage was considered mature at this time.
For Cornbelt states, the soybean crop did not decline in August as did corn. In fact, the average yield increased from 41.5 bu. in August to 42.2 bu. in September.
Aug Sept
IL 48 48
IN 43 42
IA 52 51
KS 26 27
MI 41 44
MN 40 41
MO 39 39
NE 52 55
ND 30 30
OH 44 46
SD 38 38
WI 45 45
The September objective yield data for the combined 11 major soybean-producing States (Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, and South Dakota) indicate a lower pod count compared with last year, as late planting this spring has led to slower than normal development throughout the growing season. Compared with final counts for 2010, pod counts are down in all States except Kansas and South Dakota. The largest decrease from 2010’s final pod count is expected in Indiana, down 272 pods per 18 square feet.
As of September 4, fifty-six percent of the United States soybean crop was rated in good to excellent condition, 8 percentage points behind the same week in 2010. Good to excellent ratings decreased across much of the soybean growing region during August, with declines in condition ratings of 10 points or more in Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Tennessee as hot, dry weather persisted.
Also released was USDA’s Supply and Demand Report for September. Total corn supplies for 2011/12 are lowered 442 million bushels with a 20-million-bushel reduction in carry-in and a 5-million-bushel reduction in expected imports. Beginning stocks for 2011/12 drop with small increases in 2010/11 exports and use for sweeteners reflecting the latest available data.
Total corn use for 2011/12 is projected 400 million bushels lower with tighter supplies. Projected feed and residual use is reduced 200 million bushels mostly reflecting lower expected residual disappearance with the smaller forecast crop. Corn use for ethanol is projected 100 million bushels lower with higher expected corn prices and continued weakening in the outlook for U.S. gasoline consumption as forecast by the Energy Information Administration. Corn exports for 2011/12 are projected 100 million bushels lower with increased supplies and exports expected from Ukraine, Argentina, and Brazil. U.S. ending stocks are projected 42 million bushels lower at 672 million. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 5.3 percent, compared with last month’s projection of 5.4 percent. The season-average farm price is projected 30 cents per bushel higher on both ends of the range to a record $6.50 to $7.50 per bushel.
Soybean production for 2011/12 is projected at 3.085 billion bushels, up 29 million due to higher yields. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 165 million bushels, up 10 million as higher supplies are only partly offset by increased exports. Other changes for 2011/12 include reduced food use of soybean oil reflecting increased use of canola and palm oil, increased use of soybean oil for biodiesel, and reduced food use for 2010/11.
Soybean crush for 2010/11 is increased 5 million bushels to 1.65 billion reflecting higher-than expected crush reported for July. With soybean exports unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 225 million bushels, down 5 million from last month. Other changes for 2010/11 include increased use of soybean oil for biodiesel and reduced food use. Soybean oil used for production of methyl ester was reported record high for July by the U.S. Census Bureau. Soybean oil stocks are projected at 2.84 billion pounds, up slightly from last month.
Soybean and product prices are all projected higher for 2011/12. The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $12.65 to $14.65 per bushel, up 15 cents on both ends of the range as higher corn prices provide support. Soybean meal prices are projected at $360 to $390 per short ton, up $5.00 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 55.5 to 59.0 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents on both ends of the range.
Summary:
USDA corn estimates for September are down in both yield and total production, while soybean estimates are up in both yield and production. Corn use estimates are declining due to shorter supplies and higher prices. A slight reduction was made for ending stocks to 672 mil. bu. with a stocks to use ratio down to 5.3%. For soybeans the ending stocks were raised to 165 mil. bu. USDA raised average season prices for both corn and beans.